改进的云模型在化工园区脆弱性评估中的应用  

Application of improved cloud center of gravity theory in vulnerability assessment of chemical parks

作　　者：张继信 郎晓松 尤秋菊 石明昊 张世豪 荆艺琳 商泽译 ZHANG Jixin;LANG Xiaosong;YOU Qiuju;SHI Minghao;ZHANG Shihao;JING Yilin;SHANG Zeyi(College of Safety Engineering,Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology,Beijing 102617,China;Institute of Urban Systems Engineering,Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing 100195,China)

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院安全工程学院,北京102617 [2]北京市科学技术研究院城市系统工程研究所,北京100195

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第5期1672-1680,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：北京市科学技术研究院创新培育项目(23CB077)。

摘　　要：为了评估化工园区的脆弱性,精准防范园区事故风险,提出了基于COWA G1和云重心理论的化工园区脆弱性评价模型。首先,运用鱼骨图对影响化工园区脆弱性的因素进行分析,在此基础上构建化工园区脆弱性评价指标体系;其次,为降低传统赋权方法的主观性,通过连续的有序加权平均(Continuous Ordered Weighted Averaging,COWA)算子和G1法组合确定指标主客观权重;然后,引入云重心理论计算加权相似度,从数据角度科学判别化工园区脆弱性评价等级;最后,以某化工园区为例,验证了该方法的可靠性和有效性。结果表明,化工园区脆弱性等级处于“一般脆弱”水平,表明化工园区韧性良好。该评价模型可利用编程完成模型仿真,简单实用,提高了综合评价的效率和可操作性。研究内容可以为化工园区的日常安全管理及应急处置提供理论支持和决策依据。To evaluate the vulnerability of chemical parks and accurately prevent the risk of accidents in chemical parks,this paper proposes a vulnerability assessment model of chemical parks based on Continuous Ordered Weighted Averaging(COWA)G1 and cloud center of gravity theory based on the ambiguity and randomness of vulnerability index information.Firstly,a fishbone diagram model is constructed to analyze the vulnerability factors affecting chemical parks from five different dimensions:personnel,materials,facilities,environment,and emergency response capability,and the vulnerability evaluation index system of chemical parks is constructed based on this model;secondly,to reduce the subjectivity of the traditional weighting method,the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indexes are selected from the COWA operator and the G1 ordinal relationship method;then,the cloud center of gravity theory is introduced to establish a vulnerability evaluation model of chemical parks based on the cloud center of gravity theory.Then,the cloud center of gravity theory is introduced to establish the vulnerability evaluation model of chemical park based on cloud center of gravity theory,and the vulnerability evaluation level of chemical park is scientifically determined from the data perspective by calculating the size of weighted similarity,and the comprehensive evaluation cloud map is drawn by using Python software,to analyze the vulnerability level from the perspective of visualization;finally,a chemical park is taken as an example,and the reliability and reasonable validity of the method are verified.The research results show that the vulnerability evaluation grade of the chemical park is at the general vulnerability level,indicating that the chemical park has good resilience.The evaluation model can be programmed to complete the model simulation,which is simple and practical and improves the efficiency and operability of the comprehensive evaluation.The research content can provide theoretical support and a decision-maki

关 键 词：安全工程 化工园区 脆弱性 云重心理论 加权相似度 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]