区域海事事故治理效果动态综合评价  

Dynamic comprehensive evaluation on governance effect of regional maritime accidents

作　　者：江玉杰 万征[1] 陈继红[1,2] JIANG Yujie;WAN Zheng;CHEN Jihong(College of Transport and Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Management,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306 [2]深圳大学管理学院,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第5期1937-1946,共10页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52071202)。

摘　　要：为准确评价区域海事事故治理效果,通过构建动态综合评价模型,为水上交通安全规划提供决策依据。首先,从事故的绝对指标与相对指标角度出发,建立包含8个指标的区域海事事故治理效果评价指标体系。其次,使用博弈赋权法对熵权法所得权重和指标相关性权重确定法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation, CRITIC)所得权重进行组合,以确定各时段评价指标组合权重,并采用逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS)对各地区海事事故治理效果进行各时段静态综合评价。再次,通过混合时序算子集结各时段静态综合评价值,求得各地区海事事故治理效果的动态综合评价值,进而判断各地区海事事故的治理效果。最后,运用所建评价模型对2017—2021年上海、浙江、广东和山东4个地区海事事故治理效果进行动态综合评价。研究结果显示:与单一赋权TOPSIS法相比,博弈赋权-TOPSIS法所得静态综合评价结果更为合理可靠;与单一时序算子相比,混合时序算子所得动态综合评价结果更为合理可靠;随着海事事故治理策略和治理强度不同,上海和广东地区海事事故治理效果呈上升趋势,而浙江和山东地区海事事故治理效果呈下降趋势;广东地区海事事故治理效果稳定性最强,而浙江地区海事事故治理效果稳定性最弱;上海地区海事事故治理效果最好,而浙江地区海事事故治理效果最差。To accurately evaluate the governance effect of regional maritime accidents and provide decision-making reference for water traffic safety planning,a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model was established.Firstly,the evaluation index system on the governance effect of regional maritime accidents which includes 8 indicators was established from the perspective of absolute and relative indicators of accidents.Secondly,the game weighting method was used to combine weights obtained by the entropy weight method and weights obtained by the CRITIC method,and thus to determine the combined weight of the evaluation index in each period.Meanwhile,the TOPSIS method was applied to carry out the static evaluation of the governance effect of regional maritime accidents in each period.Thirdly,the static evaluation value of each period could be aggregated by a mixed time-ordered operator to obtain the dynamic comprehensive evaluation value on the governance effect of regional maritime accidents,thus judging the relative superiority or inferiority of the governance effect of regional maritime accidents.Finally,the established evaluation model was utilized to conduct a dynamic comprehensive evaluation of the governance effect of maritime accidents in four regions(including Shanghai,Zhejiang,Guangdong,and Shandong),from 2017 to 2021.The research findings suggest that compared with the single-weighted TOPSIS method,the static comprehensive evaluation results obtained by the game-weighted TOPSIS method are more reasonable and reliable.Compared with a single time-ordered operator,the dynamic comprehensive evaluation results obtained by a time-ordered operator are more reasonable and reliable.With the different governance strategies and governance intensities of maritime accidents,the governance effect of maritime accidents in Shanghai and Guangdong shows an upward trend,while that in Zhejiang and Shandong shows a downward trend.The stability on governance effect of maritime accidents in Guangdong is the strongest,while that in Zhejian

关 键 词：安全社会工程 区域海事事故 治理效果 动态综合评价 博弈赋权-TOPSIS法 混合时序算子 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]