江西省农业绿色发展协同效应研究  

Study on the synergistic effect of agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：王火根[1] 胡霜 WANG Huogen;HU Shuang(School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330044,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学经济管理学院,南昌330044

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第5期2043-2054,共12页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71963018)。

摘　　要：探究江西省农业绿色发展水平的提升路径,可为农业绿色发展提供理论依据。以江西省为例,构建农业资源、生态环境和社会经济3个维度的协同发展关系,测度与评价2008—2020年江西省农业绿色发展水平现状,并通过系统动力学模型设计农业生产方式、农业科技创新、经济发展、消费习惯、政策支持5种策略下的7种情景模式对2021—2030年江西省农业绿色发展系统的影响。结果显示:在2008—2020年,江西省农业绿色发展水平先降后升,总体趋势向好,化肥农药零增长行动效果显著。在维持现有情景模式下,在2021—2030年江西省农业绿色发展水平能够进一步提升,7种情景模式均能有效促进江西省农业绿色发展水平。在各要素独立作用下,调减耕地复种指数、提高化肥利用率对江西省农业绿色发展水平的促进效果更为显著;与单要素发展相比,多要素协同发展对江西省农业绿色发展促进效果更大。为了使江西省农业绿色发展水平朝着有序方向发展,未来应构建区域多要素协同发展机制,实现农业生产生态生活全过程全方位绿色化。This paper is to explore the path to improve the level and provide a theoretical basis for agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province.The article constructs the synergistic development relationship among three dimensions of agricultural resources,ecological environment,and social economy,and measures and evaluates the level of agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province from 2008 to 2020.Then the paper designs the impacts of 7 scenario models under 5 strategies of agricultural production methods,agricultural science and technology innovation,economic development,consumption habits,and policy support on the agricultural green development system in Jiangxi Province from 2021 to 2030 through the system dynamics model.The results show that:the level of agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province decreases and then increases from 2008 to 2020,and its overall trend is positive,indicating that the zero-growth action on fertilizers and pesticides is effective.Under the current scenario,the level of agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province can be further improved from 2021 to 2030.On this basis,reducing the replanting index of arable land,increasing the contribution of agricultural science and technology,improving the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers,accelerating economic development,adjusting the meat consumption structure of residents and multi-factor collaborative development model can all effectively promote agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province.Under the independent effect of each element,the promotion effect of reducing the cropland replanting index and increasing the fertilizer utilization rate on the level of agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province is more obvious.The synergistic development of multiple factors has the greatest effect on agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province compared with the development of single factors.The level of agricultural green development in Jiangxi Province is developing in an orderly direction,and a regional m

关 键 词：环境科学技术基础学科 农业绿色发展 系统动力学 协同效应 江西省 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]