基于水文水动力耦合模型的三江流域防洪模拟预报应用研究  

Research on flood simulation and forecast application in the Sanjiang Basin on hydrological and hydrodynamic coupling model

作　　者：殷寅 曾贤敏 李伟 张梦菲 刘亮 YIN Yin;ZENG Xianmin;LI Wei;ZHANG Mengfei;LIU Liang(Anhui Province Wuhu Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Wuhu 241000,China;Nanjing Huishui Software Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210036,China;Wuhu Jianghe Zhishui Technology Co.,Ltd.,Wuhu 241000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省芜湖水文水资源局,安徽芜湖241000 [2]南京慧水软件科技有限公司,江苏南京210036 [3]芜湖江河智水科技有限公司,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《江淮水利科技》2024年第2期23-27,37,I0003,共7页Jianghuai Water Resources Science and Technology

摘　　要：为解决下游河网站点防洪模拟预报过程中存在预报精度偏低,以及采用水动力模型方法时所需资料数量过于庞大的问题,基于不同下垫面水文特征的分布式架构模型理论,通过对流域内山丘和平原区各阶段产汇流进行分解模拟的方式,建立了以交界面动量与通量交换实现互馈耦合的水文水动力一体化模型。以三江流域为研究区域,构建耦合了上游山丘区、平原区和下游长江水动力模型,利用代表站点开展了全流域一体化模型的率定与验证工作。对流域内2016一2022年降雨进行分析和场次降雨大于100mm的多场洪水进行验证,结果显示耦合模型的模拟精度较好,在不需要大量资料的前提下有效提高了平原河网区预报精度及整个流域防洪调度能力,具有较强的借鉴意义,可为其他类似流域防洪模拟预报研究提供参考。To solve the issues of low forecast accuracy in downstream river sites during flood simulation and forecasting,as well as the excessive amount of data required when using hydrodynamic model methods,a hydrological-hydrodynamic integrated model was established.This model was based on the distributed architecture model theory of different hydrological characteris-tics of underlying sufaces.By decomposing and simulating the runoff generation and confluence processes at various stages in the hilly and plain areas of the basin,the model achieved mutual feedback coupling through momentum and flux exchange at the interface.Using the Sanjiang Basin as the study area,a coupled model incorporating upstream hilly area hydrological mod-el,plain area hydrological-hydraulic model,and downstream Yangtze River hydraulic model was constructed.Calibration and validation of the integrated model for the entire basin were conducted using representative stations.Analysis of rainfall from 2016 to 2022 in the basin and validation of multiple floods with rainfall exceeding 100 mm demonstrate good accuracy in flood simulation with the coupled model.The results indicated that the hydro-hydraulic coupled model effectively improves the pre-diction accuracy in the plain river network area and enhances the flood dispatching capability of the entire basin without re-quiring extensive data.This model had strong reference value and can provide insights for flood simulation and prediction re-search in other similar basins.

关 键 词：三江流域 水文水动力耦合模型 防洪预报 工程调度 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]