基于动态贝叶斯网络的多任务剖面混联系统可靠性评估方法  

Reliability evaluation method for multi-task profile hybrid systembased on dynamic Bayesian network

作　　者：王雅倩 孙博[2] 黄大荣 赵宁 张宇 WANG Yaqian;SUN Bo;HUANG Darong;ZHAO Ning;ZHANG Yu(School of Information Science and Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;School of Artificial Intelligence,Anhui University,Hefei 230039,China;China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited Eighth Research Institute,Nanjing 211153,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学信息科学与工程学院,重庆400074 [2]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191 [3]安徽大学人工智能学院,合肥230039 [4]中国船舶集团有限公司第八研究院,南京211153

出　　处：《兵器装备工程学报》2024年第5期151-159,共9页Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering

摘　　要：针对混联系统,任务众多和环境复杂多变的特点,进行系统可靠性评估时往往需要考虑不同任务剖面和工作条件。考虑到混联系统的多任务剖面转换时逻辑结构变化,组件数量不同,待工作组件故障的多状态以及故障影响延续等问题,提出了多任务剖面的混联系统可靠性建模与综合评估方法。以含有表决模型的混联电子系统为例,建立多任务剖面可靠性模型,利用动态贝叶斯分析待工作组件的故障状态,从而获得待工作组件故障在任务剖面间的延续性对系统可靠性的影响,同时使用蒙特卡洛方法得到系统中可变参数影响下组件的寿命值。以雷达天线电子系统为例对可靠性模型进行检验,将该模型与不考虑待工作组件故障的模型进行对比,结果表明,考虑待工作组件故障能够更加精确的获知系统可靠性变化趋势,实例验证了该方法对于多任务剖面下混联系统的可靠性评估的有效性。When evaluating the reliability of hybrid systems,which have the characteristics of numerous tasks and complex and ever-changing environments,it is often necessary to consider different task profiles and working conditions.Considering the problems such as the change of logic structure,the different number of components,the multi-state failure of the components to be worked and the continuation of the fault,a reliability modeling and comprehensive evaluation method of the multi-task profile of the hybrid system is proposed.Taking a hybrid electronic system with a voting model as an example,a multi task profile reliability model is established.Based on dynamic Bayesian analysis of the fault status of the working component,the impact of the continuity of the working component fault between task profiles on the system reliability evaluation results is obtained.At the same time,Monte Carlo sampling method is used to obtain the component life value under the influence of variable parameters in the dynamic system.Taking the radar antenna electronic system as an example,a comprehensive reliability model was tested.The model was compared with a model that did not consider the failure of the working component.The results showed that considering the failure of the working component can more accurately understand the trend of system reliability changes.This case study validates the effectiveness of this method for reliability assessments of hybrid systems under multiple task profiles.

关 键 词：混联系统 可靠性评估 系统可靠性 动态贝叶斯网络 多任务剖面 

分 类 号：TJ0[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术] TP202[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]