中国制造业绿色发展韧性测度及演变趋势研究——来自制造企业的经验证据  

Measurement and Evolution Trend of the Green Development Resilience in China's Manufacturing Industry——Evidence From Listed Manufacturing Enterprises

作　　者：赵巧芝[1] 田雪琪 张力晖 Zhao Qiaozhi;Tian Xueqi;Zhang Lihui(Department of Economic Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;Science and Technology Division,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济管理系,保定071003 [2]华北电力大学科学技术处,保定071003

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2024年第6期71-81,共11页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目“数字经济驱动制造业高质量发展的机制识别与河北场景研究”(项目编号:HB23ZT008);河北省社会科学发展研究课题“面向碳中和目标的电力行业绿色技术创新行为及提升对策研究”(项目编号:20230202047);河北省高等学校科学研究计划项目“数字技术驱动河北省制造企业绿色高质量发展的协同路径研究”(项目编号:SZ2024159)。

摘　　要：提升绿色发展韧性是中国制造业面对动荡环境实现可持续发展的重要方向。本文采用敏感性指数法测算制造企业绿色发展韧性,利用核密度分布与马尔科夫链法评估中国制造业绿色发展韧性的动态趋势与收敛状态。结果发现:(1)中国制造业绿色转型处于“发展水平与发展韧性”双重下降时期。其中,绿色发展水平下降态势趋缓,绿色发展韧性则经历了“上升→下降”、“正向→负向”阶段转变;(2)高端装备制造业是绿色发展水平变化的主导力量,传统制造业在绿色发展韧性变化中发挥着关键作用;(3)根据绿色发展韧性的马尔科夫链结果,低水平和高水平的状态锁定概率较高,状态跃迁与状态退化主要发生在相邻状态间。制造业中收敛于高水平与较高水平类型企业占半数左右,其中,传统制造业为55%,高端装备制造业为45%。研究结论可为我国制造业促进绿色发展韧性提升和高效推进绿色发展提供一定的政策启示。Green development resilience is an important direction for Chinese manufacturing enterprises to achieve sustai⁃nable development in the face of turbulent environments.Sensitivity Index method is applied to measure green development resilience(GREST)of manufacturing enterprises.Kernel density curve and Markov chain methods are used to evaluate their dynamic trends and convergence characteristics in China's manufacturing industry.Results are as follows.Firstly,its green transformation of China's manufacturing industry is experiencing such double declines in terms of gtfp and GREST.Its gtfp is decreasing while GREST has turned such transitions as“rising→decreasing”and“positive→negative”.Secondly,high-end-equipment manufacturing sector is the leading force in gtfps change,while traditional manufacturing sector is playing dominant role in its green development resilience.Thirdly,based on Markov chain results of GREST,state-locking probabilities are higher for both the high-level and lower-level types.State-Jumping and sate-degradation exist mainly between the adjacent types.The manufacturing industry should converge to the relatively higher-level and higher-level types,which may occupy half of the whole enterprises.Further,the con⁃verging enterprises of traditional manufacturing sectors make up 55%of them,and the proportion of high-end equipment manufac⁃turing enterprises is 45%.Research findings can provide certain policy insights to promote the enhancement of GREST and the effi⁃cient advancement of green development in Chinas manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：制造业 绿色发展韧性 绿色全要素生产率 敏感性指数法 核密度分布 马尔科夫链 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济] F062.1