论北方海航道开发前景:气候、海运与破冰船  

On the Prospects for the Development of the Northern Sea Route:Climate,Shipping and Icebreakers

作　　者：李志庆[1] LI Zhiqing(Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences,Harbin 150028,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省社会科学院,哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《海洋经济》2024年第2期32-42,共11页Marine Economy

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划青年项目[19GJC137]。

摘　　要：随着全球气候不断变暖,北极冰川融化加剧,北方海航道海域冰层日趋缩小和变薄,为北方海航道开发提供了历史性机遇。全球化趋势下,国际货物贸易飞速发展,国际海运尤其是欧亚大陆间海运活动昌盛,传统南方航道面临压力,为北方海航道开发提供了现实需求。破冰船自出现以来,不断迭代升级,在动力、船体设计、船体材料、辅助设备等方面飞速发展,破冰能力不断提高,为北方海航道开发提供了技术可能。近年来北方海航道的开发取得飞速发展,而且俄罗斯仍在加大对北方海航道的开发力度,但北方海航道开发也面临国际合作环境恶化、资金投入大、经济性不强等问题。整体而言,在气候变暖、海运需求旺盛和破冰船技术不断发展的大背景下,长期来看,北方海航道开发的前景仍十分广阔。As the global climate continues to warm,the melting of Arctic glaciers intensifies,and the ice layer in the Northern Sea Route is shrinking and thinning,providing a historic opportunity for the development of the Northern Sea Route.Under the trend of globalization,the international trade in goods is developing rapidly,and the international shipping,especially the shipping between Eurasia,is prosperous.The traditional southern waterway is under pressure,which provides a realistic demand for the development of the northern seaway.Since its emergence,icebreakers have been iteratively upgraded and developed rapidly in terms of power,hull design,hull materials,auxiliary equipment,etc.,and their icebreaking capabilities have been continuously improved,providing technical possibilities for the development of the Northern Sea Route.In practice,the development of the Northern Sea Route has achieved rapid development in recent years,and Russia is still strengthening the development of the Northern Sea Route.However,the development of the Northern Sea Route also faces problems such as the deterioration of the international cooperation environment,large capital investment,and not economical.On the whole,under the background of climate warming,strong demand for shipping and the continuous development of icebreaker technology,in the long run,the prospects for the development of the Northern Sea Route are still very broad.

关 键 词：北方海航道 气候变暖 海运 破冰船 俄罗斯 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济] F12[天文地球—海洋科学] P74