安徽省宣城市春茶霜冻害风险评估与区划分析  

Analysis of risk assessment and zoning for spring tea frost damage in Xuancheng city,Anhui province

作　　者：孙秀邦 刘瑞娜 胡安霞 宋艳芬 王学梅 SUN Xiubang;LIU Ruina;HU Anxia;SONG Yanfen;WANG Xuemei(Xuancheng Meteorological Service,Xuancheng 242000,China;Anhui Agricultural Meteorological Center,Hefei 230036,China;Plantation Bureau of Xuanzhou District of Xuancheng,Xuancheng 242000,China)

机构地区：[1]宣城市气象局,安徽宣城242000 [2]安徽省农业气象中心,安徽合肥230036 [3]宣城市宣州区种植业局,安徽宣城242000

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2024年第2期96-102,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：安徽省气象科技发展基金“宣城市春茶开采期预报及冻害风险研究”(KM201813)资助。

摘　　要：选用1960—2022年安徽省宣城市7个国家气象站和157个区域自动气象站资料、DEM和乡镇茶园面积数据,基于自然灾害风险评估原理,应用霜冻危险性、春茶脆弱性和暴露性因子指标,采用云模型、层次分析法和自然断点法等,对春茶风险区划危险性指数、指标权重、综合风险分级进行春茶霜冻害风险区划。结果表明:1960—2022年宣城市春茶霜冻害主要发生在日最低气温-4~4℃条件下,山区的霜冻害综合风险显著高于平原。轻度霜冻害主要分布在宣城北部的宣州区和广德市,中度霜冻害主要分布在广德市南部和北部乡镇等地,重度和特重度霜冻害主要出现在宁国市大部、泾县汀溪乡、宣州区溪口镇,广德市杨滩、柏垫、四合和卢村等乡镇。Utilizing weather data from 7 national meteorological stations and 157 regional automatic weather stations,DEM,and township tea plantation area data from 1960 to 2022 in Xuancheng city,Anhui province,based on the principle of natural disaster risk assessment,using the indexes of frost hazard,spring tea vulnerability,exposure factor and employing methodologies such as the cloud model,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and natural breaks method,this research conducts zoning analysis of frost damage risk for spring tea considering hazard index,index weights,and comprehensive risk grading.The results indicate that from 1960 to 2022,the main occurrences of frost damage to spring tea in Xuancheng city was under the conditions of daily minimum temperatures ranging from-4℃to 4℃,and mountains areas has significantly higher comprehensive frost damage risks relative to plains.Mild frost damage is primarily found in the northern parts of Xuancheng,including Xuanzhou district and Guangde city,while moderate frost damage is mainly distributed in the southern and northern townships of Guangde city.Severe and extremely severe frost damage chiefly occurs in large parts of Ningguo city,Tingxi township in Jing county,Xikou town in Xuanzhou district,and townships such as Yangtan,Baidian,Sihe,and Lucun in Guangde city.

关 键 词：茶叶 春季霜冻 云模型 灾害风险 

分 类 号：S425[农业科学—植物保护] S571.1