基于典型源荷耦合模式的中长期时序场景生成  

Medium-and Long-term Time-series Scenarios Generation Based on Typical Source-load Coupling Modes

作　　者：黄津钜 赵鹏飞[1] 周航 徐新智 高艺 孙英云[1] HUANG Jinju;ZHAO Pengfei;ZHOU Hang;XU Xinzhi;GAO Yi;SUN Yingyun(School of Electrical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization,Xicheng District,Beijing 100031,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]全球能源互联网发展合作组织,北京市西城区100031

出　　处：《全球能源互联网》2024年第3期271-282,共12页Journal of Global Energy Interconnection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFB2405900)。

摘　　要：高比例可再生能源电力系统中源荷功率在气象的影响下耦合程度增加。基于生成式模型的场景生成方法是分析源荷功率不确定性问题的成熟工具,然而实际应用中常受源荷数据匹配样本少的问题限制,直接生成的中长期源荷耦合时序场景质量较差。提出一种基于典型源荷耦合模式的中长期时序场景生成方法。首先,定义了源荷各自的气象模式概念。然后,通过气象距离将历史数据中典型气象模式相似的源荷聚合成定义的典型源荷耦合模式。接着,采用生成对抗网络生成典型风光场景,并将生成场景与典型源荷耦合模式进行匹配。最后,根据匹配的对应关系得到典型源荷耦合场景。以日本地区为例的仿真结果表明,所提方法能够提高场景在气象方面的可解释性,同时减小了源荷数据匹配样本少对中长期源荷耦合场景生成的影响。The degree of source-load coupling in high percentage renewable energy power systems is greatly increased under the influence of meteorology.Scenarios generation methods based on generative models are well-established tools for analyzing source-load uncertainty,however,the quality of directly generated medium-and long-term source-load coupling time series scenarios is poor in practical applications,which is often limited by the problem of small matching samples of source-load data.In this paper,a medium-to long-term time series scenarios generation method based on typical source-load coupling modes is proposed.First,the concept of source-load respective meteorological modes is defined.Then,the source and loads in similar typical meteorological modes in the historical data are aggregated into defined typical source-load coupling modes by meteorological distances.Next,a generative adversarial network is employed to generate typical wind and photovoltaic scenarios,and the generated scenarios are matched with the typical source-load coupling modes.Finally,the typical source-load coupling scenarios are obtained based on the matched correspondence.The simulation results for the Japanese region as an example show that the method proposed in the paper can improve the scenarios’interpretability in terms of meteorology,and at the same time reduce the impact of the small number of matching samples of source-load data on the generation of medium-and long-term source-load coupled scenarios.

关 键 词：典型源荷耦合模式 气象距离 场景生成 中长期时序场景 

分 类 号：TM61[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]