北京西山林场侧柏林可燃物含水率及林火预测  

Moisture Content of Fuels and Forest Fire Prediction of Platycladus Orientalis Forest in Xishan of Beijing

作　　者：白海峰 牛树奎[2] 刘晓东[2] BAI Haifeng;NIU Shukui;LIU Xiaodong(Department of Public Security,Shandong Police College,Ji’nan,Shandong Province 250200,China;School of Ecology and Nature Reserves,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing China)

机构地区：[1]山东警察学院治安系,山东济南250200 [2]北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国人民警察大学学报》2024年第6期36-41,共6页Journal of China People's Police University

基　　金：山东警察学院院级项目“典型针叶林可燃物特征及潜在火行为研究”(YKYPYZX202305)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：以北京西山林场侧柏林为研究对象,对选择林分的特征进行调查,经内业试验对侧柏林地表细小可燃物含水率进行测定,选择通过Pearson相关性分析呈显著的气象因子为拟合变量建立细小可燃物含水率模型,根据引燃试验建立地表火发生概率模型,同时结合Cruz树冠火发生模型,利用实际气象条件对地表火与树冠火发生概率的动态变化进行分析。结果表明:侧柏林细小可燃物含水率模型预测效果较好;防火期内,侧柏林发生地表火的概率较大,而不同样地发生树冠火的概率差别较大,在风速较大时发生树冠火的概率较大。Taking Platycladus orientalis in Beijing Xishan Forest as the research object,the characteristics of the selected forest were investigated,and the moisture content of fine fuels on the forest surface was measured.A moisture content model of such fuels was established based on the meteorological factors that were significant through Pearson correlation analysis,and a surface fire occurrence probability model was established according to the igni-tion test.Combined with the Cruz crown fire occurrence model,an analysis was made on the dynamic changes of the occurrence probability of surface fire and crown fire by using the actual meteorological conditions.The results show that the model of moisture content of fine fuels has a good prediction;during the fire prevention period,the prob-ability of surface fire in the Platycladus orientalis forest was relatively high,while the probability of crown fire in dif-ferent plots varied widely,and the probability of crown fire was higher when the wind speed is high.

关 键 词：北京西山林场 侧柏 森林火灾 可燃物含水率 

分 类 号：S762.1[农业科学—森林保护学] X954[农业科学—林学]