生猪价格波动对养殖规模调整的非对称影响分析  

Analysis of the asymmetric influence of hog price fluctuation on the adjustment of breeding scale

作　　者：曾雅婷 霍昊然 王晓睿 ZENG Yating;HUO Haoran;WANG Xiaorui(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China;The Agricultural Development Bank of China Shandong Branch,Jinan 250002,China)

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029 [2]中国农业发展银行山东省分行,山东济南250002

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期17-29,78,共14页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(20YJC790005)。

摘　　要：基于2000—2021年省际面板数据检验生猪价格波动对养殖规模调整的非对称性影响机制以及养殖规模化的调节作用。结果表明:第一,价格波动会对下一期生猪养殖规模产生显著正向影响,且该影响具有非对称性,表现为价格下降时的边际影响显著高于价格上升时,证实生猪养殖户存在明显的损失厌恶型非理性调整行为;第二,养殖规模化会对由价格波动导致的养殖规模调整产生非对称性的负向调节效应,表现为价格下降时的负向调节效应更为显著。进一步分析发现,价格波动对养殖规模调整的影响主要由养殖户数量的变动而非户均养殖规模调整导致,且小规模养殖户对价格下降的“利空”消息反应更敏感,会因为价格下降产生市场退出行为,大规模养殖户则对价格上涨的“利好”消息更敏感。Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2021,the asymmetric influence mechanism of price fluctuation on the adjustment of live hogs quantity,as well as the regulating role of the scalebreeding,has been analyzed.The study shows that the price fluctuation has a significant positive impact on the scale of pig breeding,and the influence is asymmetric:the marginal effectof price declineis significantly higher than that of price increase,which proves that pig farmers have obvious loss-aversion irrational adjustment behavior.Scale breeding has an asymmetric negative adjustment effect on breeding scale adjustment caused by price fluctuations,which is shown by that the negative adjustment effect is more significant when the price drops.Further analysis shows that the impact of price fluctuation on farming scale adjustment is mainly caused by the change of the number of farmers rather than the adjustment of average farming scale per household.Small-scale farmers are more sensitive to price decline and would withdraw from the market because of it while large-scale farmers are more sensitive to price rise.

关 键 词：生猪 价格波动 养殖规模调整 养殖规模化 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]