基于CMIP6模式的叶尔羌河流域未来水文干旱风险预估  

Prediction of future hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin based on CMIP6 models

作　　者：向燕芸 王弋 陈亚宁[3] 张齐飞 张玉杰 XIANG Yanyun;WANG Yi;CHEN Yaning;ZHANG Qifei;ZHANG Yujie(School of Public Administration,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi,China;School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China;School of Geographical Sciences,Shanxi Normal University,Taiyuan 030031,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学公共管理学院,山西太原030006 [2]华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京102206 [3]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [4]山西师范大学地理科学学院,山西太原030031

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2024年第5期798-809,共12页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52161145102);山西省高等学校科技创新项目(2022L270)资助。

摘　　要：全球变暖导致干旱等极端事件频发,严重威胁生态安全和社会经济可持续发展,尤其是干旱区这一气候响应敏感区。本研究基于流域站点观测气象、水文等数据和第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)全球气候模式数据,应用分布式水文模型HEC-HMS模型,模拟并预估了塔里木河重要源流——叶尔羌河流域历史(1986—2014年)与未来(2015—2100年)径流变化趋势以及水文干旱风险。结果表明:(1)HEC-HMS模型在干旱区流域适用性较好,未来3个共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下叶尔羌河流域年径流和标准化径流指数(SRI)都将呈显著增加趋势(P<0.1),SRI上升速率约0.13~0.27·(10a)^(-1)。(2)构建并对比了流域历史和未来时期4个干旱特征变量的边缘分布,未来干旱持续时间、干旱强度和烈度峰值都明显大于历史时期,干旱程度可能将不断加剧。(3)相较于历史时期,叶尔羌河流域未来水文干旱发生的联合概率将持续减小,且未来干旱事件的重现期都将有不同程度的延长。研究结果可为叶尔羌河流域水资源管理与规避水文干旱风险措施的制定提供科学参考。Global warming has led to the increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts,posing significant threats to ecological security and sustainable socioeconomic development,particularly in arid regions,which are highly sensitive and responsive to climate changes.This paper employs the distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS,utilizing observed meteorological and hydrological data from basin stations and global climate model data from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Program(CMIP6),to simulate and forecast the historical(1986—2014)and future(2015—2100)runoff trends and hydrological drought risks in the Yarkant River Basin(an essential tributary of the Tarim River),Xinjiang,China.The findings indicate that:(1)The HECHMS model is well-suited for arid basin areas.Under the three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)scenarios,the runoff and standardized runoff index(SRI)in the Yarkant River Basin are projected to significantly increase(P<0.1),with the SRI growth rate estimated at approximately 0.13-0.27·(10a)^(-1).(2)A comparative analysis of the marginal distributions of four drought characteristic variables in the basin for both historical and future periods reveals that the duration and intensity of future droughts will exceed those in the historical record,with a continuous rise in drought event magnitudes.(3)Moreover,the joint probability of future hydrological droughts in the Yarkant River Basin is expected to decrease relative to the historical period,leading to a prolonged return period for future droughts.The outcomes of this study offer valuable scientific references for water resource management and the development of strategies to mitigate hydrological drought risks in the basin.

关 键 词：水文干旱 风险预估 CMIP6 气候变化 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] P426.616[水利工程—水文学及水资源]