福建漳州平和柚天气指数保险产品设计与定价  

Product Design and Pricing of Weather Index Insurance for Pinghe Pomelo in Zhangzhou City of Fujian Province

作　　者：徐学荣[1] 李丽容 王丹 林玲玲 XU Xue-rong;LI Li-rong;WANG Dan;LIN Ling-ling(School of Economics and Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China;Fujian Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350002 [2]福建省气象科学研究所,福建福州350002

出　　处：《福建农业科技》2024年第3期62-69,共8页Fujian Agricultural Science and Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BTJ047)。

摘　　要：柚产业是福建省漳州市平和县的支柱产业,为分散当地柚生产的经营风险,基于福建省漳州市平和县1985−2022年柚产量及对应年份3月中旬至8月上旬的天气数据,将柚单产数据分解成趋势单产和气象单产,并调整单产数据使其转化到2024年的生产力水平下的单产,选用核密度估计法拟合该序列的概率密度函数并用于纯费率厘定;而后利用调整后单产数据和天气数据进行相关性分析,筛选显著的天气指数。结果显示:4月中下旬降雨量指数与调整后单产的线性关系最为显著。对于2024年约定的保障产量51000 kg·hm^(−2)和保险价格2.8元·kg^(−1),即每667m^(2)保险金额为9520元,厘定纯费率为4.0191%、保险费率为4.6220%;对于降雨量指数RI的保险赔付触发值160 mm以及RI的8个分级赔付区间,分别计算得到了对应的赔付事件发生概率,并给出了对应的赔付金额计算公式。The pomelo industry is a pillar industry in Pinghe County,Zhangzhou City,Fujian Province.In order to disperse the operational risks of local pomelo production,based on the pomelo production in Pinghe County of Zhangzhou City from 1985 to 2022 and the weather data from the middle ten days March to the first ten days of August of the corresponding year,the original data of pomelo yield per unit area was decomposed into trend yield per unit area and meteorological yield per unit area.The original data of yield per unit area was adjusted to convert it to the yield per unit area under the productivity level of 2024.The kernel density estimation method was used to fit the probability density function of the sequence and used for the determination of pure rate.Then,the correlation analysis was carried out by using the adjusted yield per unit area and weather data to screen the significant weather index.The results showed that the linear relationship between the rainfall index and the adjusted yield per unit area was the most significant in the middle and last ten days of April.For the agreed insurance output of 51000 kg·hm^(-2)and the insurance price of 2.8 yuan·kg^(-1)in 2024,that was,the insurance amount per 666.7 m^(2)was 9520 yuan,the determined pure premium rate was 4.0191%,and the insurance rate was 4.6220%.For the insurance compensation trigger value of the rainfall index RI of 160mm,and the eight graded compensation intervals of RI,the corresponding probability of occurrence for the compensation events was calculated respectively,and the corresponding calculation formula of compensation amount was given.

关 键 词：天气指数保险 柚单产 降雨量指数 费率厘定 保险赔付 

分 类 号：F842.4[经济管理—保险]