基于组合权重的渔船安全灰色综合评价模型研究  

Research on grey comprehensive evaluation model of fishing vessel safety based on combination weights

作　　者：朱恩波 王煜 任玉清 黄应邦[3] ZHU Enbo;WANG Yu;REN Yuqing;HUANG Yingbang(College of Fisheries and Life Science,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian 116023,China;College of Navigation and Naval architecture,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian 116023,China;South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Guangzhou 510300,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海洋大学水产与生命学院,辽宁大连116023 [2]大连海洋大学航海与船舶工程学院,辽宁大连116023 [3]中国水产科学研究院南海水产研究所,广东广州510300

出　　处：《中国渔业质量与标准》2024年第2期43-50,共8页Chinese Fishery Quality and Standards

基　　金：农业农村部渔业渔政管理局资助项目(17230144)。

摘　　要：海洋渔业是国际公认的最危险行业之一,为了解中国渔船安全情况,依据国内外关于渔船安全指标的研究和中国渔业互保协会相关统计研究报告,选择千船全损数、千船部损数、万人死亡数、万人伤残数和万人受伤数5个指标构成渔船安全评价指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)与CRITIC权重法确认各评价指标的主客观权重,最后通过博弈论将主客观权重结合,以灰色关联度为基础建立了渔船安全灰色综合评价模型。为验证该模型的科学性与合理性,以中国渔业互保协会承保渔船、渔民事故数据为样本进行了评价研究。评价结果与该协会统计数据反映的渔船、渔民安全状况基本一致,并且与该协会专家对承保渔船安全走势总体判断也基本一致,表明模型可以应用于渔船安全评价实践。[中国渔业质量与标准,2024,14(2):43-50]Marine fishery is internationally recognized as one of the most dangerous industries.In order to recognize the safety situation of fishing vessels in China,based on the researches on safety indicators of domestic and abroad fishing vessels as well as the relevant statistical research reports from the China Fisheries Mutual Protection Association,five indicators were selected to form the fishing vessel safety evaluation index system:total loss per thousand vessels,partial loss per thousand vessels,death per ten thousand people,disability per ten thousand people,and injury per ten thousand people,The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and CRITIC weight method were used to confirm the subjective and objective weights of each evaluation indicator mentioned above.Finally,the subjective and objective weights were combined through game theory,and a grey comprehensive evaluation model of fishing vessel safety was established based on thegrey correlation degree.To verify the scientificity and rationality of the model,an evaluation study was conducted using fishing vessels and fishermen accident data from the China Fisheries Mutual Insurance Association.The evaluation results were consistent with the safety status of fishing vessels and fishermen reflected in the statistical data of the association,and highly consistent with the overall judgment on the trend of insured fishing vessel safety from the association′s experts,indicating that the model could be applied to the practice of fishing vessel safety evaluation.

关 键 词：渔船安全 层次分析法 CRITIC权重法 博弈论组合权重 灰色综合评价 

分 类 号：X954[环境科学与工程—安全科学]