气候变化对定州市冬小麦生育期的影响分析  

Effect of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Growth Period in Dingzhou City

作　　者：梁宏喆 张思涵 刘博文 贾桂梅 LIANG Hong-zhe;ZHANG Si-han;LIU Bo-wen;JIA Gui-mei(Key Laboratory of Intelligent Monitoring and Service on Ecological Meteorology of Baoding,Baoding 071000,China;Dingzhou Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province,Dingzhou 073000,China;Baoding Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]保定市生态气象智能监测与服务重点实验室,河北保定071000 [2]河北省定州市气象局,河北定州073000 [3]河北省保定市气象局,河北保定071000

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2024年第3期74-80,92,共8页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：保定市气象局科研项目“气候变化对定州市冬小麦生育期影响的研究”(22bdky03)。

摘　　要：为研究定州市冬小麦生育期对气候变化的响应,利用1981—2022年气象观测资料及1982—2022年冬小麦生育期资料,分析了定州市近40年来冬小麦全生育期气候变化情况、极端天气发生情况以及冬小麦生育期的变化趋势,并对冬小麦生育期与气象要素进行了相关性分析。结果表明:定州市冬小麦生育期气温呈变暖的趋势,降水量呈增多的趋势,日照时数呈减少的趋势;极端高温事件呈增多的趋势,极端低温事件呈减少的趋势,整体呈现变暖的趋势;极端降水指数呈增多的趋势;播种—越冬期整体呈推迟的趋势,越冬—成熟期整体呈现提前的趋势,冬小麦全生育期呈现显著缩短的趋势;定州市冬小麦适播期为9月26日—10月7日,最佳播种期为9月28日—10月2日,同时应在适播期范围内延迟播种;1982—2022年定州市冬小麦全生育期历期呈缩短趋势的主要原因是气候变暖和日照时数减少。To study the response of winter wheat growth period to climate change in Dingzhou City,we analyzed the climate change,the occurrence of extreme weather,the change trend of winter wheat growth period and the correlation between winter wheat growth period and meteorological factors in Dingzhou City in recent 40 years based on the meteorological data from 1981 to 2022 and the growth period data of Dingzhou City from 1982 to 2022.The results show that the temperature shows a warming trend,the precipitation shows an increasing trend,and the sunshine hours show a decreasing trend during the growth period of winter wheat.Extreme heat events are increasing,extreme hypothermia events are decreasing,the overall trend is warming,and the extreme precipitation events are increasing.The sowing-overwintering period shows a delayed trend,the overwintering�maturity period shows an early trend,and the entire growth period of winter wheat shows a significant shortening trend.The suitable sowing period for winter wheat in Dingzhou City is from September 26th to October 7th,and the optimal sowing period is from September 28th to October 2nd.The sowing should be delayed within the suitable sowing period range.The shortening trend of the entire growth period of winter wheat in Dingzhou from 1982 to 2022 is mainly caused by climate warming and reduced sunshine hours.

关 键 词：冬小麦 气候变化 极端天气 生育期 适播期 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]