农村“双困”老年人长期照护筹资规模及保障机制研究  

Research on the Financing Scale and Guarantee Mechanism for Long-term Care of“Double-stricken”Older People in Rural Areas

作　　者：李元[1] 张岳伟 LI Yuan;ZHANG Yuewei(School of Public Administration,Changchun University of Technology,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]长春工业大学公共管理学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《人口与发展》2024年第3期102-112,共11页Population and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“农村失能老人长期照护需求评估、负担测算及保障模式研究”(22YJCZH094);吉林省社科基金项目“吉林省老年人照护服务体系建设与保障策略研究”(2022B108)的阶段性结果。

摘　　要：2020年我国乡村60周岁及以上人口占乡村总人口的23.8%,2021年面临自理能力丧失困境的农村老年人所占比重为26.4%,相较城镇,农村老年人口存在自主能力受限和认识能力障碍的人数较多,占比分别达到37.8%和36.5%。鉴于农村收入水平和家庭照护能力较低,完善农村“双困”老人照护机制已成为国家老龄事业发展中亟待解决的重大难题,也是目前农村养老政策中亟待解决的重要课题。运用Markov模型,结合2013—2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,测算未来30年农村“双困”老人的人口规模及结构,进而得出农村“双困”老人照护需要及社会救助成本。研究结果表明,我国失能老人数量呈现倒U型增长趋势,从2021年农村失能老人1789万人,到2036年达峰值后,随后会出现小幅下降,2051年降到1961万人。农村“双困”老人的照护需求和社会救助成本也随之上升,在中方案下,农村“双困”老人的救助成本规模从2021年的292.62亿元上升到2051年的580.96亿元,但此成本规模占财政支出的比例较少。基于以上结果,提出以满足农村“双困”老人照护服务需要为切入点,建立多层次的农村“双困”老人照护筹资体系,农村老年照护救助是解决农村“双困”老人照护问题的政策选择。In 2020,the rural population aged 60 and above accounted for 23.81%of the total rural population in China.In 2021,the proportion of rural older people facing the dilemma of losing their ability to take care of themselves was 26.4%.In contrast,there were more people with limited autonomy and cognitive impairment,accounting for 37.77%and 36.5%,respectively.Due to limitations in income levels and family care capabilities,improving the care mechanism for older people in rural areas with double difficulties has become a major challenge that urgently needs to be solved in the development of the country′s elderly care industry,and it is also an important issue that urgently needs to be addressed in current rural elderly care policies.This article uses the Markov model,combined with data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)from 2013 to 2015,to estimate the population size and structure of“double-stricken”older people in rural areas in the next 30 years.It also calculates the care needs and social assistance costs for these older individuals.The research findings demonstrate that the number of older people with disabilities in China shows a reverse“U”shaped growth trend.It reaches its peak in 2021 with 17.87 million older people with disabilities in rural areas,and then experiences a slight decline to 19.61 million people by 2051.The care needs and social assistance costs for the“double-stricken”older people in rural areas also increase accordingly.Under the proposed plan,the scale of social assistance costs for the“double-stricken”older people in rural areas will rise from 29.3 billion yuan in 2021 to 58.1 billion yuan in 2051.However,this cost scale accounts for a relatively small proportion of fiscal expenditure.Based on the above results,this article proposes to address the contradiction between rural elderly care services and the construction of China′s elderly security system by taking meeting the needs of elderly care services in rural areas as the starting point.It is

关 键 词：农村贫困 失能老人 照护救助 筹资规模 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]