“强省会”战略下长江经济带低碳经济和产业选择  

Under the Strategy of“Strengthening Provincial Capital”,Low Carbon Economic and Industrial Choice in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：陈志建[1] 张立 张庆娟 Chen Zhijian;Zhang Li;Zhang Qingjuan(School of Economics and Management,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《华东交通大学学报》2024年第2期118-126,共9页Journal of East China Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42261060);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(21YJCZH011);江西省研究生创新专项基金项目(YC2021-S477)。

摘　　要：城市低碳发展是我国生态文明建设的重要抓手,而“强省会”战略对区域间的协调发展产生了重要影响,这就为“强省会”战略下长江经济带城市的低碳经济发展和产业选择提出了新要求。【目的】研究刻画长江经济带地级市行业的低碳经济效应,探讨产业选择问题。【方法】研究采用随机森林模型。【结果】长江经济带城市行业碳减排潜力较大,其中建筑业最大。“强省会”战略下,上海、武汉、重庆、成都的产业低碳经济发展较为充分,南昌、贵阳、昆明、长沙等小核心省会城市制造业和部分社会服务业等产业的减排潜力较大。【结论】省会城市应重点发展社会服务业,非省会城市根据自身资源禀赋,选取具有自身特色的产业重点发展。The low-carbon development of cities is an important lever in China's ecological civilization construction,and the“strong provincial capital”strategy has had a significant impact on the coordinated development between regions,which puts forward new requirements for the low-carbon economic development and industrial selection of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the“strong provincial capital”strategy.【Objective】The study describe the low-carbon economic effects of the industries in the prefecture level cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and discusses the problem of industry selection.【Method】The study uses the random forest model.【Result】The carbon emission reduction potential of urban industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is significant,with the construction industry being the largest.Under the strategy of“strengthening provincial capitals”,Shanghai,Wuhan,Chongqing,and Chengdu have relatively full development of low-carbon industries,while small core provincial capitals such as Nanchang,Guiyang,Kunming,and Changsha have great potential for emission reduction in manufacturing and some social service industries.【Conclusion】Provincial capital cities should focus on developing social service industries,while non provincial capital cities should select industries with their own characteristics for key development based on their own resource endowments.

关 键 词：强省会 低碳城市 碳生产率 产业选择 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]