安徽省农产品冷链物流需求预测分析  

Forecast Analysis on Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics Demand in Anhui Province

作　　者：赵娣 吴自爱 高莹莹 朱磊磊 ZHAO Di;WU Zi-ai;GAO Ying-ying;ZHU Lei-lei(School of Business,Chizhou University,Chizhou Anhui 247000,China;School of Arts and Education,Chizhou University,Chizhou Anhui 247000,China)

机构地区：[1]池州学院商学院,安徽池州247000 [2]池州学院艺术与教育学院,安徽池州247000

出　　处：《铜陵学院学报》2024年第2期57-60,共4页Journal of Tongling University

基　　金：池州学院人文重点项目“安徽省农产品冷链物流创新模式与路径研究”(CZ2021RWZ24)。

摘　　要：文章基于2016─2020年安徽省生鲜农产品产量数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型,对安徽省“十四五”期间六类主要生鲜农产品的冷链物流需求进行了预测。预测结果显示,安徽省生鲜农产品对冷链物流的需求呈逐年上升态势,其中,蔬菜、水果、生牛奶和茶叶冷链需求增长明显。建议通过政策引导实现冷链物流领域的供需平衡;建立精确的冷链物流供需预测机制;加大对冷链物流基础设施建设和科技创新的投资力度;建立实时监控和预警系统;加强对生鲜农产品冷链物流的监管,促进安徽省冷链物流系统的可持续发展。Based on the production data of various fresh agricultural products in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2020,the article utilizes the Grey GM(1,1)model to forecast the cold chain logistics demand for six major fresh agricultural products in Anhui Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The prediction results show that the demand for cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in Anhui Province is increasing year by year with a significant increase in the cold chain demand for vegetables,fruits,raw milk,and tea.It is recommended to achieve supply-demand balance in the cold chain logistics sector through policy guidance;establish an accurate cold chain logistics supply-demand forecasting mechanism;increase investment in infrastructure construction and technological innovation for cold chain logistics;establish a real-time monitoring and early warning system;and strengthen the supervision of cold chain logistics for fresh agricultural products,thereby promoting the sustainable development of the cold chain logistics system in Anhui Province.

关 键 词：生鲜农产品 冷链物流 需求分析 灰色GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：F326.6[经济管理—产业经济]