内蒙古沿黄河流域七盟市碳排放影响因素与情景分析  

Influencing factors and scenario analysis of carbon emissions in seven cities along the Yellow River basin in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：于晓燕 沈碧霞 吴雨彤 高雅娴 魏光普 YU Xiaoyan;SHEN Bixia;WU Yutong;GAO Yaxian;WEI Guangpu(Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology;Research Center of Industrial Informationization and Innovation in Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学 [2]内蒙古科技大学产业信息化与产业创新研究中心

出　　处：《环境工程技术学报》2024年第3期778-787,共10页Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology

基　　金：内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2022LHMS07004);内蒙古自治区高校人文社会科学重点研究基地基金资助项目。

摘　　要：“双碳”目标下,内蒙古沿黄河流域七盟市经济高质量发展是实现该地区高质量发展的关键途径。为探讨碳排放影响因素并预测碳排放峰值,选取内蒙古沿黄河流域七盟市2005—2022年面板数据,运用岭回归和扩展STIRPAT模型探究人口规模、城镇化率和人均GDP等6个因素以及各因素间的交互作用对七盟市碳排放的影响,并基于情景分析法预测七盟市2023—2035年碳排放变化趋势和达峰量。结果表明:2005—2022年七盟市碳排放量总体呈现波动上升趋势;人口规模、城镇化率、人均GDP的增加导致碳排放量增加,而能源强度和碳排放强度的降低可以有效减缓碳排放量增加;城镇化率和人均GDP的交互作用会导致七盟市碳排放量增加,而人口规模和人均GDP的交互作用、能源强度和产业结构的交互作用能有效抑制该地区碳排放量增加;6种不同预测情景下七盟市的碳排放量变化趋势差异较大,高碳情景和基准情景模拟下2030年碳排放量均未达到峰值,而其他4种情景碳排放量均在2030年出现峰值,且此4种情景模拟下碳减排的效果依次为全面低碳情景>能源强度降低情景>碳排放强度降低情景>产业结构优化情景。因此,全面实现产业结构优化、清洁能源开发和绿色工业技术突破性发展是内蒙古沿黄河流域七盟市实现经济与节能减排协同发展目标的最优策略。Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,the high-quality economic development of seven cities along the Yellow River basin in Inner Mongolia is a key way to realize the high-quality development of the region.In order to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions and predict the peak of carbon emissions,the panel data of seven cities along the Yellow River basin in Inner Mongolia from 2005 to 2022 was selected,and the Ridge regression and the extended STIRPAT model were used to study the six influencing factors,including population size,urbanization rate,and GDP per capita,as well as the interaction of them,on the carbon emissions of the seven cities.Based on scenario analysis,the trends and peak levels of carbon emissions of the seven cities from 2023 to 2035 were predicted.The results show that:from 2005 to 2022,the carbon emissions of seven cities showed a fluctuating upward trend;the increase in population size,urbanization rate,and GDP per capita can lead to an increase in carbon emissions,while the reduction in energy intensity and carbon intensity can slow the increase in carbon emissions.The interaction of urbanization rate with GDP per capita can lead to a further increase in carbon emissions of the seven cities,while the interaction of population size and GDP per capita,and the interaction of energy intensity and industrial structure can effectively curb the increase in carbon emissions in the region;the trend of changes in carbon emissions of the seven cities have bigger differences under six different forecast scenarios,under both the high carbon and benchmark scenarios,carbon emissions will not peak by 2030,while the other four scenarios will all peak carbon emissions by 2030.The order of carbon emission reduction effectiveness under these scenarios is as follows:comprehensive low-carbon scenario,energy intensity reduction scenario,carbon emission intensity reduction scenario,and industrial structure optimization scenario.Therefore,the comprehensiveoptimization of industrial stru

关 键 词：黄河流域 碳排放 情景分析法 STIRPAT模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]