基于ANN-CA模型的F县季节性闲置耕地模拟及预测  

Simulation and prediction of seasonally idle cropland in F County based on ANN-CA model

作　　者：王静祎 王加胜[1] WANG Jingyi;WANG Jiasheng(Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学地理学部,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《安徽农学通报》2024年第10期133-138,共6页Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41961056);云南省高层次人才培养支持计划“青年拔尖人才”(YNWR-QNBJ-2020-053);云南师范大学研究生科研创新基金(YJSJJ23-B149)。

摘　　要：为保护耕地和提高耕地利用率,促进农业可持续发展,本研究利用ANN-CA模型对F县的季节性闲置耕地情况进行模拟预测。模拟结果表明,在α=2,T=0.8的参数组合下,各类用地变化的模拟精度较高,模拟出的用地变化情况与2020年的实际用地情况较为贴近;根据季节性闲置耕地识别规则模拟出F县未来耕地季节性闲置现象呈现明显好转趋势,预测2025年F县季节性闲置耕地主要集中在东北部和南部,面积为25.8318km^(2)。生产中,注意对耕地进行科学合理的养护和利用,以保障农作物的产量和质量,确保农业可持续发展。In order to protect arable land and improve its utilization rate,promote sustainable agricultural development,used the ANN-CA model to simulate and predict the seasonal idle arable land situation in F County.The simulation results showed that under the parameter combination of α=2,T=0.8,the simulation accuracy of various land use changes was high,and the simulated land use changes were closer to the actual land use situation in 2020.According to the recognition rules of seasonal idle farmland,it was simulated that the seasonal idle farmland phenomenon in F County would show an improvement trend in the future.It was predicted that in 2025,the seasonal idle farmland in F County would mainly be concentrated in the northeast and south,with an area of 25.8318 km^(2).In production,attention should be paid to the scientific and reasonable maintenance and utilization of arable land to ensure the yield and quality of crops and ensure the sustainable development of agriculture.

关 键 词：季节性闲置耕地 ANN-CA模型 模拟预测 耕地利用率 土地养护 

分 类 号：S151[农业科学—土壤学]