Rolling Decision Model of Thermal Power Retrofit and Generation Expansion Planning Considering Carbon Emissions and Power Balance Risk  

作　　者：Dong Pan Xu Gui Jiayin Xu Yuming Shen Haoran Xu Yinghao Ma 

机构地区：[1]Economic and Technology Research Institute,State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hefei,230022,China [2]School of Electrical and Automation Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei,230009,China

出　　处：《Energy Engineering》2024年第5期1309-1328,共20页能源工程（英文）

基　　金：supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd. (No.B6120922000A).

摘　　要：With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.

关 键 词：Carbon emission risk power balance risk thermal power retrofit generation expansion planning 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]