基于贮存剖面的弹上电子部件可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of Missile-borne Electronic Components Based on Storage

作　　者：刘晓娣 李田科[3] 韩建立 LIU Xiaodi;LI Tianke;HAN Jianli(Aviation Foundation College,Naval Aviation University,Shandong Yantai 264001,China;Coastal Defense College,Naval Aviation University,Shandong Yantai 264001,China;PLA,No.91980 Troop,Shandong Yantai 264001,China)

机构地区：[1]海军航空大学航空基础学院,山东烟台264001 [2]海军航空大学岸防兵学院,山东烟台264001 [3]中国人民解放军91980部队,山东烟台264001

出　　处：《装备环境工程》2024年第5期82-87,共6页Equipment Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51975580)。

摘　　要：目的提高弹上电子部件贮存可靠性预测的准确度,提出基于贮存剖面的弹上电子部件可靠性分析方法。方法在分析弹上电子部件贮存剖面及环境条件的基础上,将弹上电子部件视为多阶段任务系统,引入贝叶斯分析,采用分阶段建模方法,针对各阶段相关性和失效率的不同,基于累积损伤模型,构建弹上电子部件贮存寿命周期内的可靠性模型。结果相比于洞库贮存、值班等单一环境条件下的可靠性预测,基于贮存剖面综合环境下的可靠性预测结果的准确性更高,且随着贮存时间的增长,优势更明显。结论该方法立足于实际贮存剖面,分析结果更符合弹上电子部件的应用实际,也为其他弹上部件的可靠性分析提供了一种有效途径。The work aims to propose a reliability analysis method of the missile-borne electronic component based on the storage profile,in order to improve the accuracy of the storage reliability prediction of the electronic components.Based on the analysis of the storage profile and environmental conditions,the missile-borne electronic component was regarded as a phase mission system.Bayesian analysis was introduced,and the reliability model of the electronic component during the storage life cycle was constructed based on the cumulative damage model according to the different correlation and failure rate of each stage.Compared with the reliability prediction under single environmental condition such as cave storage and combat readiness duty,the reliability prediction results in the comprehensive environment based on storage profile were more accurate,and the advantage became more pronounced as the storage time increased.Based on the actual storage profile,the prediction results are more in line with the application practice of missile-borne electronic components,and an effective method for the reliability analysis of other missile-borne components is provided.

关 键 词：可靠性 弹上电子部件 贮存剖面 多阶段任务系统 贝叶斯分析 累积损伤模型 

分 类 号：TJ760[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]