长江经济带洪涝灾害社会脆弱性评价及时空分析  

Assessment and spatiotemporal analysis of flood vulnerability in the yangtze river economic belt

作　　者：贺玲 陈佳川 程春歌 袁建伟 屈波 魏杨 HE Ling;CHEN Jiachuan;CHENG Chunge;YUAN Jianwei;QU Bo;WEI Yang(School of Economics,Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101149,China;Development Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China;Yangtze Ecological and Environmental Protection Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430062,Hubei,China;China International Engineering Consulting Corporation,Beijing 100048,China;Hebei Finance University,Baoding 071051,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院经济学院,北京101149 [2]水利部发展研究中心,北京100038 [3]长江生态环保集团有限公司,湖北武汉430062 [4]中国国际工程咨询有限公司,北京100048 [5]河北金融学院,河北保定071051

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2024年第3期24-39,共16页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72348003);国家自然科学基金国际合作重点项目(72261147472);北京物资学院校级青年基金(2023XJQN01)。

摘　　要：【目的】系统地分析长江经济带各省洪涝灾害社会脆弱性及时空特征,对其防灾减灾提供决策依据。【方法】以长江经济带11个省作为研究对象,基于暴露度-敏感性-适应性(ESA)脆弱性评估框架构建社会脆弱性评估模型,并采用熵权法和多级模糊综合评价方法,对长江经济带洪涝的社会脆弱性和时空分布特征进行评估和分析。【结果】结果表明:(1)长江经济带洪涝社会脆弱性分布呈现出下游低,中游适中,上游高的特征。上游地区社会脆弱性指数平均值约为下游地区的4倍,中游地区的2倍。(2)2009—2019年长江经济带社会脆弱性的暴露度和适应性小幅上升、敏感性持续降低,整体上社会脆弱性表现为持续降低,经济带的灾害防御能力在逐年增强。(3)长江经济带洪涝社会脆弱性的影响因素表现出显著的空间异质性。高适应性和低敏感性是下游地区低社会脆弱性的原因;低适应性是中上游地区高脆弱度的主要原因;高暴露和高敏感性是湖南省的主要影响因素。【结论】就不同地区的致脆主导因素,提出针对性的防灾减灾措施。对于城市基础设施建设能力不足的地区,如江西省和四川省,其基础设施适应性指数对总适应性指数的贡献率分别为43%和47%,应当兴修其排水基础设施,加强防洪排涝设施的管护,增加绿化面积,建设海绵城市,提高城市韧性等。就水库数量不足导致其灾害抵御能力较弱的地区如贵州省,应当加快病险水利工程加固提标,开展小型水库系统治理评估等。[Objective]Systematically analyzing the vulnerability and spatiotemporal characteristics of flood disasters in various provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,could provide decision-making basis for disaster prevention and reduction.[Methods]The vulnerability assessment model was constructed based on the Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity(ESA)framework,adopting the entropy weight method and multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to assess and analyze the social vulnerability and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of floods in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.[Results]The result indicate that:(1)The distribution of flood vulnerability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exhibits characteristics of low downstream,moderate midstream,and high upstream.The average vulnerability index of the upstream region is about 4 times that of the downstream region and 2 times that of the midstream region.(2)From the perspective of time distribution,the exposure and adaptability of the vulnerability of the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased slightly from 2009 to 2019,while the sensitivity continued to decrease.Overall,the vulnerability showed a continuous decrease,and the disaster prevention capacity of the Economic Belt was increasing year by year.(3)The influencing factors of flood vulnerability in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity,with high adaptability and low sensitivity being the reasons for low downstream vulnerability;Low adaptability is the main reason for high vulnerability areas in the middle and upper reaches;High exposure and high sensitivity are the main influencing factors in Hunan Province.[Conclusion]Targeted disaster prevention and mitigation measures should be proposed based on the dominant factors of vulnerability in different regions.For areas with inadequate urban infrastructure construction capabilities,such as Jiangxi and Sichuan provinces,their infrastructure adaptability index contributes 43%and 47%,respectively,to the total adaptabilit

关 键 词：社会脆弱性 时空变化 熵权法 多级模糊综合评价 长江经济带 气候变化 人类活动 洪涝灾害 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]