基于VAR模型的我国肉羊育肥饲料价格波动实证研究  

Empirical study on price fluctuation of fattening feed for mutton sheep in China based on VAR model

作　　者：王昕昕 WANG Xin-xin

机构地区：[1]烟台职业学院,山东烟台264670

出　　处：《饲料研究》2024年第8期186-190,共5页Feed Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(项目编号:20YJC790156)。

摘　　要：文章利用2012年1月-2022年12月的132个肉羊育肥饲料价格月度数据,从内部传导和外部冲击2个视角出发,选取豆粕价格、小麦麸价格、羊肉价格以及自然灾害风险指数作为解释变量,对我国肉羊育肥饲料价格波动的影响因素展开分析。结果表明:豆粕价格通过内部传导机制对肉羊育肥饲料产生显著影响;自然灾害事件通过外部冲击机制对肉羊育肥饲料价格波动产生明显影响;前期肉羊育肥饲料价格对后期肉羊育肥饲料价格具有显著影响。研究表明,文章结论可为维护肉羊育肥饲料价格长期稳定提供参考。Based on the monthly data of 132 fattening feed prices for mutton sheep from January 2012 to December 2022,this paper selects soybean meal price,wheat bran price,mutton price,and natural disaster risk index as explanatory variables to analyze the influencing factors of fattening feed price fluctuation for mutton sheep in China.The results showed that the price of soybean meal had a significant impact on fattening feed of mutton sheep through an internal transmission mechanism.Natural disasters had obvious influence on the fluctuation of fattening feed price of mutton sheep through external impact mechanism.The fattening feed price of early mutton sheep had a significant impact on the fattening feed price of late mutton sheep.The study indicates that the conclusion of this paper can provide a reference for maintaining the long-term stability of fattening feed price of mutton sheep.

关 键 词：肉羊育肥饲料 价格波动 自然灾害 VAR模型 

分 类 号：S826.5[农业科学—畜牧学]