化肥零增长行动成效及化肥面源污染与农业产值的脱钩研究——以黄石市为例  

Oneffects of fertilizer zero growth action and the decoupling of fertilizer non-point source pollution and agricultural output value——Taking Huangshi as an example

作　　者：严素定 张敏 刘恋 梅露 李晨乐 YAN Suding;ZHANG Min;LIU Lian;MEI Lu;LI Chenle(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Hubei Normal University,Huangshi 435002,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北师范大学城市与环境学院,湖北黄石435002

出　　处：《湖北师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期12-20,共9页Journal of Hubei Normal University：Natural Science

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金(2022CFB504)。

摘　　要：化肥在促进粮食和农业生产发展中起了不可替代的作用,但化肥的不合理施用会带来严重的面源污染问题。通过收集黄石市2000~2021年化肥施用量等相关数据并进行计算,分别采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型、脱钩模型和Kaya恒等式分解模型探究黄石市化肥零增长行动成效、化肥面源污染与农业产值的脱钩关系以及黄石市化肥面源污染排放的影响因素,以期为黄石市农业生产实践提供理论指导。结果表明,化肥零增长行动实施后,黄石市氮肥、磷肥和复合肥投入量逐年减少且氮肥投入减量成效最显著,达到了该行动的目标。同时,由化肥引起的TN和TP等标排放量均明显下降且TN等标排放量减量效果更为显著。2000~2015年,黄石市化肥面源污染与农业产值主要呈现弱脱钩状态,而2015~2021年则主要呈现为强脱钩状态,黄石市农业生产对化肥投入的依赖性降低。黄石市化肥等标排放量的影响因素被分解为3个,即排放系数、化肥消费强度和作物面积。黄石市各区市县中,化肥消费强度均为化肥污染等标排放量的正向驱动因子,而作物面积则均为负向驱动因子。2000~2021年,三因素对黄石市化肥面源污染等标排放量的贡献逐渐由正向驱动转为负向驱动。Chemical fertilizers play an irreplaceable role in promoting the food and agricultural production,but irrational use of chemical fertilizers will bring serious non-point source pollution(NPSP).With data on the amount of chemical fertilizers applied from 2000 to 2021 in Huangshi as the sample,this paper explored the effects of fertilizer zero growth action,the decoupling relationship between fertilizer NPSP and agricultural output value and the influencing factors of fertilizer NPSP by using the grey prediction GM(1,1)model,decoupling model and Kaya identity decomposition model,so as to provide theoretical guidance for agricultural production practice in Huangshi.The results showed that after the implementation of fertilizer zero growth action,the input of nitrogen fertilizer,phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer in Huangshi showed a yearly decrease,among which the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer input was the most significant.In the meanwhile,the total nitrogen(TN)and total phosphate equivalent emissions caused by chemical fertilizers decreased significantly and the reduction of TN equivalent emission was more significant.For the first 15 years from 2000 to 2015,chemical fertilizer NPSP and agricultural output value in Huangshi mainly displayed a weak decoupling relationship,while for the last 7 years from 2015 to 2021,it mainly presented a strong decoupling relationship.It implied that agricultural production had a lower dependence on fertilizer input in Huangshi.Generally,there are mainly three factors influencing equivalent emissions of chemical fertilizer in Huangshi,namely,emission coefficient,chemical fertilizer consumption intensity and crop planting area.In districts and prefecture-level cities in Huangshi,fertilizer consumption intensity was presented as a positive driving factor while the crop planting area was shown as a negative driving factor for equivalent emissions of chemical fertilizers.The contribution of the three factors mentioned above to equivalent emissions of chemical fertilizers h

关 键 词：化肥 面源污染 灰色预测 脱钩 分解模型 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]