基于Delft3D的珠江前航道尸体模型漂移轨迹预测  

Prediction of Corpse Model Drifting Trajectories in Pearl River Front Channel Based on Delft3D Model

作　　者：程香菊[1] 陈泽海 李斌 李旭[2] 毕锦进 王龙威 CHENG Xiangju;CHEN Zehai;LI Bin;LI Xu;BI Jinjin;WANG Longwei(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China;Marine Branch of Guangzhou Public Security Bureau,Guangzhou 510235,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510641 [2]广州市公安局水上分局,广东广州510235

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第5期65-74,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2023-06)。

摘　　要：为预测珠江前航道中尸体的漂移轨迹,帮助当地水警确定溺亡者尸体的具体位置,利用Delft3D构建珠江前航道水动力模型,并使用尸体模型进行了多次现场漂移试验。通过对珠江前航道表层流速进行拟合,建立了尸体模型漂移的预测模型,R^(2)为0.88。研究结果表明,珠江前航道释放的尸体模型受潮汐和径流作用沿河道做往复运动,并呈逐渐漂向下游的趋势;漂移模型验证中尸体模型的漂移速度和方向基本与潮流一致,模拟结果的误差在1 km以内,终点距离误差率小于15%;实例验证中成年女性尸体的模拟结果误差约为300 m;游船所引起的波浪力等外力导致漂移轨迹呈现出南北方向性的偏差,需要进一步提升模拟效果。该漂移模型的推导模式同样适用于其他感潮河段,可使尸体的漂移轨迹变得可测,为尸体打捞工作和警方的案件处理提供了便利和参考。To predict the drifting trajectories of bodies in the Pearl River Front Channel and assist local water police in locating the specific positions of drowning victims,this study uses Delft3D to construct a hydrodynamic model of the Pearl River Front Channel and conducts multiple on-site drifting tests using a corpse model.By fitting the surface flow velocity of the Pearl River Front Channel,the paper builds a prediction model for corpse model drifting with an R^(2) of 0.88.The results show that the corpse model released in the Pearl River Front Channel undergoes back-and-forth motion along the river channel under the influence of tides and flows,gradually drifting downstream.In the drifting model validation,the drifting speed and direction of the corpse model are generally consistent with the tidal current,and the error in simulation results is within 1 km,with a final distance error rate of less than 15%.In a case study,the simulated results for an adult female corpse have an error of approximately 300 m.External forces such as wave force caused by boats result in a north-south directional deviation in the drifting trajectory,indicating the need to further improve the simulation effect.The derivation mode of the model is also applicable to other tidal rivers,making it possible to measure the drifting trajectories of bodies and providing convenience and reference for body recovery work and police case processing.

关 键 词：Delft3D 感潮河段 漂移轨迹 预测模型 拟合 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]