昆明不同历时降水极值变化特征及其重现期研究  

Research on the Variation Characteristics and Recurrence Periods of Precipitation Extremes during Different Periods in Kunming

作　　者：孙娟 杨溢 段玮[2] 杨炳玉[3] 邢冬[2] SUN Juan;YANG Yi;DUAN Wei;YANG Bingyu;XING Dong(School of Public Security and Emergency Management,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan Province 650093;Yunnan Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Kunming,Yunnan Province 650034;Yunnan Meteorological Service,Kunming,Yunnan Province 650034)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院,云南昆明650093 [2]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034 [3]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《楚雄师范学院学报》2024年第3期100-108,共9页Journal of Chuxiong Normal University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(No.41930972);云南省重点研发计划项目(No.202203AA080010);云南省气象局创新团队(No.2022CX01,07)。

摘　　要：利用昆明气候基准站1958~2022年不同历时年最大降水资料,结合短历时降水指标分析、趋势分析、小波分析和极值分析等方法,揭示了昆明不同历时年最大降水的基本演变特征,并完成了不同历时降水极值的分布拟合和重现期成果推算,结果表明:(1)昆明地区不同历时年最大降水的各项降水指标值小于郑州、北京、浙江等地区,这来自不同地区的气候禀赋差异。(2)昆明地区不同历时年最大降水具有明显的年际变化特征,总体较弱增强趋势。除了历时120 min和180 min的年最大降水显示出显著的11~14年周期性变化外,其他时段降水的周期性变化不甚明显。(3)在统计检验指标和实测关键数据点的检验中,显示耿贝尔分布适用于昆明,可用于不同历时任意重现期的降水强度推算。以上研究成果可为昆明区域强降水认识、预测预警气象服务和城市防灾减灾等提供依据和参考,并为其他地区相关工作提供借鉴。Based on the data of annual maximum precipitation of different durations from 1958 to 2022 at Kunming Climate Reference Station,combined with short-duration precipitation index analysis,trend analysis,wavelet analysis and extreme value analysis,the basic evolution characteristics of annual maximum precipitation of different durations in Kunming were revealed,the extreme value distribution of precipitation of different durations was fitted and the result of recurrence period was calculated.The results indicate that:(1)The values of all precipitation indices for different durations of annual maximum precipitation in the Kunming area are lower than those in regions such as Zhengzhou,Beijing,and Zhejiang.This is attributed to the differences in climatic endowments across various regions.(2)The annual maximum precipitation of different durations in the Kunming area exhibits significant interannual variability,with an overall weakly increasing trend.Except for the two time periods of 120 minutes and 180 minutes,where the annual maximum precipitation shows significant periodic changes from 11 to 14 years,the periodic changes in precipitation in other time periods are not very significant.(3)Statistical inspection indicators and key data point tests show that the Gumbel distribution performs favorably in Kunming and can be used for calculating the precipitation intensity for any recurrence period of different durations in Kunming.The research findings can provide a basis and reference for understanding,predicting,and warning against heavy precipitation in the Kunming area,meteorological services,and urban disaster prevention and mitigation.They also offer insights for similar work in other regions.

关 键 词：昆明 不同历时 降水极值 变化特征 重现期 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]