三峡库区中长期水文预报研究进展  

Research progress of mid-long term hydro-logicalforecast in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

作　　者：陈蒙恩 魏兴 周育琳 史瑞博 李伊能 CHEN Meng-en;WEI Xing;ZHOU Yu-lin;SHI Rui-bo;LI Yi-neng(College of Civil Engineering,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404100,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院土木工程学院,重庆404100

出　　处：《地下水》2024年第2期211-214,264,共5页Ground water

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1392);重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJQN202201210,KJQN202201224,KJQN202101235,KJQN202301209)。

摘　　要：高精度的中长期水文预报对三峡库区的防汛抗旱计划编制和发电调度安排具有重要指导意义。目前,国内外中长期水文预报的研究热点包括影响因素、预报方法和不确定性分析等方面。其中,中长期水文预报方法包括过程驱动模型、数据驱动模型和组合模型,本文分别对过程驱动模型和数据驱动模型的代表性模型基本原理及适用条件进行展开分析。并结合三峡库区水文气候条件和应用的预报方法,揭示三峡库区中长期水文预报的研究进展。同时展望下一阶段三峡库区中长期水文预报的研究应着重考虑的问题:(1)流域情势和径流变化成因;(2)预报方法可靠性;(3)预报过程不确定性。High-precision medium and long-term hydro-logical forecasting has important guiding significance for flood control and drought relief planning and power generation scheduling in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.At present,the research hotspots of medium and long-term hydro-logical forecasting at home and abroad include influencing factors,forecasting methods and uncertainty analysis.Among them,the medium and long-term hydro-logical forecasting methods include process-driven model,data-driven model and combined model.This paper analyzes the basic principles and applicable conditions of the representative models of process-driven model and data-driven model.Combined with the hydro-logical and climatic conditions and applied forecasting methods in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,the research progress of medium and long-term hydro-logical forecasting in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is revealed.At the same time,the problems that should be considered in the study of medium and long term hydro-logical forecasting in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in the next stage are prospected:(1)basin situation and runoff change causes;(2)Reliability of prediction method;(3)Uncertainty of forecast process.

关 键 词：中长期水文预报 三峡库区 影响因素 数据驱动模型 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学] TV632[水利工程—水文学及水资源]