中国女性终身不育水平估计——基于第七次全国人口普查数据的分析  

An Assessment of Lifetime Childlessness in China Based on the 7th Population Census

作　　者：张翠玲[1] 姜玉[1] 庄亚儿[1] 姜全保[2] 于典 刘雯莉 Zhang Cuiling;Jiang Yu;Zhuang Yaer;Jiang Quanbao;Yu Dian;Liu Wenli

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心 [2]西安交通大学人口与发展研究所 [3]美国哈佛大学教育学院 [4]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100081

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（人口学）》2023年第5期23-35,共13页DEMOGRAPHY

基　　金：第七次全国人口普查重点研究课题“我国终身不育水平估计及对策研究”(RKPCZB14)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：利用第七次全国人口普查数据估计得出,2020年中国49岁女性的终身不育率为5.16%,低于美国11%和欧盟国家19%的平均水平。中国女性的终身不育水平呈现出鲜明的时期、队列、受教育程度、城乡、区域和省际差异。高受教育程度以及居住在城市、东北地区、极低生育水平省份的女性,终身不育率更高,49岁女性无活产子女的比例均在6%以上。未来城镇化加速推进、高等教育继续普及、婚育推迟程度持续深化,还将进一步推动终身不育水平上升。在婚外生育较少、多孩占比较低的背景下,终身不育水平的持续上升对中国出生人口数量和生育水平的负向抑制将更加强烈,并将对适度生育水平的实现产生长远且深刻的影响,因此要高度重视这一现象并提前谋划应对策略。According to the 7th National Population Census of China,the estimated rate of childlessness for women aged 49 is 5.16%in 2020,lower than that reported in the European Union(19%)and in the United States(11%).The heterogeneity of childlessness in China is increasing,showing distinct differences regarding to period,cohort,education,place of residence,and regions.The childlessness level of women aged 49 with high levels of education,living in cities and regions with ultralow fertility levels is much higher.Factors like the acceleration of urbanization,the continued popularization of higher education,and the ongoing trend of marriage and childbearing delay would further promote the rise of the childlessness level.Given China's low share of nonmarital births and third births and above,the continuous rise of childlessness level would have a stronger negative impact on the newborn population and total fertility rates,thereby affecting China's ability to maintain the aimed suitable fertility level.The government should attach great importance to and address the issue in advance.

关 键 词：低生育水平 终身不育率 异质性 人口普查数据 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]