人口负增长与老龄化交汇时代的形势与应对  

The Demographic Situation and Countermeasuresin the Intersection of Negative Population Growth and Aging

作　　者：原新[1] 范文清 Yuan Xin;Fan Wenqing

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（社会主义经济理论与实践）》2023年第3期46-55,共10页THE SOCIALIST ECONOMY:THEORY AND PRACTICE

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22ZDA098)。

摘　　要：在全球少子化和长寿化趋势交叠的背景下,中国人口转变表现为快且急的典型特点。遵循人口发展规律,人口老龄化持续深化,人口负增长在空间上由点及面不断扩张,使得中国即将进入总人口负增长和人口老龄化的交汇期。这种新人口形势会对国家发展带来经济社会负担持续加重、宏观经济潜在风险增加、城乡协调发展难度提升、社会各类关系矛盾凸显等新挑战,也会带来短期内劳动力供给充足、低龄老人社会参与增加、教育发展格局拓宽升级、家庭政策助力生育率提升等机遇。为此,在思想上要科学认识,充分理解新人口形势的正反两方面的影响;在举措上要主动适应,充分发掘新人口形势蕴藏的新机遇;在行动上要积极应对,直面新人口形势对发展的全面挑战,努力把新时期的人口机会有效转化为新的人口红利,促进经济社会高质量发展。Under the background of declining global birthrates and growing longevity,issues concerning China's demographic transition are particularly pressing.Following the patterns of demographic development,the aging population continues to expand and the negative population growth is proliferating from key urban locations to other areas across the country,which has pulled China into a convergence period of aging and negative population growth.This new demographic situation will bring many new challenges for national development,such as heavier burdens on the social-economic system,increasing potential risks of macro-economic development,difficulties of coordinating urbanrural development,various stresses on social relations,etc.On the contrary,it can offer opportunities,such as providing sufficient short-term labor supplies,increasing the social participation of the young-elderly,widening and upgrading education development patterns,and enhancing the birthrates with family planning support policies.Therefore,we should scientifically understand the positive and negative effects of the new demographic situation,actively adapt to new opportunities in the new demographic structure and respond to comprehensive challenges of national development.We should try to effectively transform the demographic opportunities into new demographic dividends,and promote high-quality economic and social development in the new era.

关 键 词：人口负增长 人口老龄化 人口形势 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]