扩散、融合还是选择:流动如何影响女性初婚初育间隔?——基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据的实证分析  

Diffusion,Integration or Selection:How Migration Affects the Interval between Female′s First Marriage and Fertility——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of National Fertility Sampling Survey in 2017

作　　者：罗志华 贾志科 茅倬彦 Luo Zhi-Hua;Jia Zhi-Ke;Mao Zhuo-Yan

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学社会发展学院,上海200241 [2]河北大学哲学与社会学学院,河北保定071002 [3]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（人口学）》2023年第2期94-108,共15页DEMOGRAPHY

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“家庭养育成本及其对生育决策的影响研究”(21ARK006)。

摘　　要：改革开放以来,人口流动在促进经济社会快速发展的同时也深刻改变了女性的婚育行为。利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据,通过方差分析和多重比较、Kaplan-Meier生存曲线和半参数Cox回归分析方法检验了流动影响女性初婚初育间隔的“扩散效应”、“融合效应”和“选择效应”。研究发现,初婚前流动和外出流动时长对女性初婚初育间隔具有扩大作用,流入新一线城市、省会城市和其他城市女性的初婚初育间隔时间比流入一线城市的女性更短,跨省流动会显著提升女性的初婚初育间隔;老市民的流动身份会扩大女性的初婚初育间隔,而新居民和新村民会缩短初婚初育间隔;打算生育子女数量以及对子女的性别偏好将直接推迟女性初婚初育间隔。此外,教育水平也对女性初婚初育间隔表现出了部分“选择效应”。由此可见,人口流动对女性初婚初育间隔的影响具有异质性,“扩散效应”、“融合效应”和“选择效应”可能同时存在。Since the economic reform and open up,population migration has not only promoted the rapid economic and social development,but also profoundly changed female’s marriage and fertility behavior.Using the 2017 national fertility sampling survey data,through analysis of variance and multiple comparisons,Kaplan-Meier survival curve and semi-parametric Cox regression analysis methods,“diffusion effect”,“integration effect”and“selection effect”of interval between female’s first marriage and fertility were tested by migration.The study found that pre-first-marriage migration and length of out-migration have an expanding effect on interval between female’s first marriage and fertility;women who flow into new first-tier cities,provincial capitals and other cities have a shorter interval between female’s first marriage and fertility than women who flow into first-tier cities;cross-provincial migration significantly increases interval between female’s first marriage and fertility;migration status of old citizens expands interval between female’s first marriage and fertility,while new residents and new villagers shorten interval between female’s first marriage and fertility;The number of intended children and gender preference for children directly delay interval between female’s first marriage and fertility.In addition,education level also exhibits a partial“selection effect”on interval between female’s first marriage and fertility.Thus,the effect of population migration on interval between female’s first marriage and fertility is heterogeneous,and the“diffusion effect”,“integration effect”and“selection effect”may exist simultaneously.

关 键 词：人口流动 初婚初育间隔 扩散效应 融合效应 选择效应 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] C913.68