中国居民代际收入流动性的水平、来源与潜力测算——来自CGSS和CHIP的经验证据  

Measuring the Level,Source and Potential of Intergenerational Income Mobility:Evidence from CGSS and CHIP Data

作　　者：刘李华[1] 孙早[1] Liu Lihua;Sun Zao

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,710061

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（统计与精算）》2023年第1期98-112,共15页STATISTICS AND ACTUARIAL SCIENCE

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“收入不平等对中国长期经济增长影响的研究”(19YJA790077);中国博士后科学基金面上项目“社会心理学视角下代际收入流动对健康资本的影响研究”(2020M683438)的资助。

摘　　要：准确把握中国代际收入流动性的水平、来源和潜力是构建合理、适度的社会性流动格局的基础。本文利用CCSS数据和CHIP数据从整体情况、性别差异、城乡差异、阶层差异及变化趋势等多个角度勾勒了中国代际收入流动性的全貌;并进一步结合宏观统计数据利用反事实法测算了人力资本、户籍类型、职业和社会资本四个维度的社会性流动所创造的代际收入流动及其潜力。测算结果表明,考察期内中国代际收入弹性约为0.46,女性、城镇和较低收入个体的代际流动性低于男性、农村和较高收入个体的代际流动性,代际收入流动性未表现出恶化趋势;如果仅使用代际收入弹性、收入排序的代际相关性或绝对流动率均难以完整刻画代际收入流动性。综合来看,人力资本的代际流动对代际收入流动的创造力最大且创造代际收入流动的潜力也最大。提高代际收入流动性的政策着力点仍应集中于保障人力资本投资的公平性。Estimating the level,source and potential of intergenerational income mobility accurately is the basis of constructing a reasonable and moderate pattern of social mobility.This paper uses CGSS data and CHIP data to outline the overall picture of intergenerational income mobility in China from multiple perspectives,such as overall situation,gender difference,urban-rural difference,class difference and changing trend.Furthermore,this paper uses counterfactual method to calculate source and potential of intergenerational income mobility in four dimensions,namely,human capital,registration type,occupation and social capital.The results show that the intergenerational income mobility in China is about O.46,and the intergenerational income mobility of women,urban and low-income individuals is lower than that of men,rural and higher income individuals,but the intergenerational income mobility does not show a worsening trend.Intergenerational income elasticity,intergenerational correlation of income ranking or upward mobility cannot fully describe intergenerational income mobility.The intergenerational flow of human cap-ital has the greatest creativity to intergenerational income mobility and the greatest potential to create intergenera-tional income mobility.The policy aimed to improve intergenerational income mobility should focus on ensuring the equity of human capital investment.

关 键 词：代际收入流动性 反事实法 人力资本 来源与潜力 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]