国民经济核算视角下中国居民消费率的因素分解研究——对“消费能力说”和“消费意愿说”的定量考察  

Factor Decomposition of China's Household Consumption Ratio from the Perspective of National Economic Accounting:A Quantitative Investigation of the"Purchasing Power Hypothesis"and the"Propensity to Consume Hypothesis"

作　　者：冯明 Feng Ming

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（统计与精算）》2023年第5期43-59,共17页STATISTICS AND ACTUARIAL SCIENCE

摘　　要：居民消费率偏低是中国宏观经济中的一个突出现象,对此,二十大报告提出要增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用,将其作为扩大内需的重要方面。本文首先构建了一个基础的两因素模型,定量考察“消费能力说”和“消费意愿说”对2000年以来中国居民消费率变化的解释力度。紧接着,一方面运用可比口径资金流量表数据,详细拆解初次分配环节和再分配环节各主要项目对居民部门可支配收入的贡献;另一方面在对相关指标进行口径调整的基础上,分析购房支出挤占效应在宏观层面对居民消费率的影响。研究发现:居民部门可支配收入份额偏低和购房支出挤占是制约居民消费率的主要原因,消费倾向偏低相对而言居于次要地位。对于2000年以来中国居民消费率的“U型”两阶段变化而言,“调整后的可支配收入份额效应”前期大幅拖累居民消费率下行,后期对居民消费率回升的贡献较小;“调整后的消费倾向效应”前期小幅拖累居民消费率下行,后期大幅带动居民消费率回升。仅依靠官方统计口径会高估“消费意愿说”对居民消费的抑制作用,而低估“消费能力说”的影响,容易对认识居民低消费问题的成因产生一定误导。Low household consumption ratio is a prominent fact in the Chinese economy.In 2019,it was equal to 39.1%,i.e.,significantly lower not only than that of developed countries,but also of other representative emer-ging market economies.Although policy makers have repeatedly proposed to expand household consumption,the sit-uation has not fundamentally changed so far.In fact,insufficient household consumption demand has become a weakness in the national economic cycle,leading to a low utilization of production capacity and the lack of internal impetus for economic growth.For this reason,expanding household consumption has become increasingly important to foster a new pattern of development focused on the domestic economy.As pointed out by the"Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China",China must expand its domestic demand and better leverage the fundamental role of consumption in stimulating economic growth.In literature,two perspectives are usually put forward to explain the reasons for China's low household consumption ratio.One is the perspective of the"Purchasing Power Hypothesis"(PPH),which emphasizes that consumption is rational decision of millions of individuals under specific budget constraints,and argues that household sector's low income share in GDP is the primary factor restraining China's household consumption ratio.The other is the perspective of the"Propensity to Consume Hypothesis"(PCH),which states that Chinese households have a low propensity to consume and at the same time a high preference for saving,due to factors such as cultural tradition,inadequate social security system,and competition in the marriage market.Although both these hypotheses have been supported by empirical research at the microeconomic level,at the macroeconomic level there is still a lack of reliable quantitative research to measure their impact on China's low household consumption ratio.In this study,we investigate the PPH and the PCH quantitatively by using factor decomposition models with national

关 键 词：居民消费率 居民收入份额 消费倾向 资金流量表 国民经济核算 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]