人民币汇率变动、资源转移与产业结构升级  

RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Resource Transfer and Industrial Structure Upgrading

作　　者：曹伟[1] 金朝辉 邓贵川 万谍[1] Cao Wei;Jin Zhaohui;Deng Guichuan;Wan Die

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学金融学院 [2]厦门大学经济学院 [3]中山大学国际金融学院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（产业经济）》2023年第6期53-65,共13页INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“人民币国际化进程中汇率稳定与宏观经济均衡研究:基于定价货币视角的分析”(71903205);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目“人民币汇率推动我国制造业与生产性服务业融合发展的机制与政策研究”(LZ22G030003);浙江省哲学社会科学规划之江青年理论与调研专项课题“人民币汇率升值是否促进了我国产业结构升级一一基于Melitz(2003)经典模型的拓展研究”(22ZJQN23YB)。

摘　　要：本文首先建立汇率变动影响产业结构升级的理论模型,分析汇率变动通过资源转移对产业结构升级产生影响的机制,发现汇率变动对产业结构升级的作用受进口贸易、出口贸易、外商直接投资以及消费转移四个因素的影响。之后考虑到“一带一路”倡议改变了各省份主要贸易伙伴的构成,本文构建了省际人民币实际有效汇率指标,考察人民币实际有效汇率变动对产业结构升级的影响。实证研究发现:(1)人民币升值有利于我国产业结构升级,该促进作用随各省份第二产业(贸易品)消费占比上升、劳动密集型产品出口占比上升、资本密集型产品出口占比下降或资本密集型产品进口占比上升而增强;(2)“一带一路”倡议本身有利于我国产业结构升级,但同时在一定程度上会抑制人民币升值对我国产业结构升级的正向作用。由此,本文认为,促进我国产业结构升级,需要制定进一步深化人民币汇率改革、鼓励服务消费以及改善我国与共建“一带一路”国家的双边贸易结构等政策。In the Government Work Report of 2021,China vowed to keep the share of manufacturing in the economy basically stable.We will transform and upgrade traditional industries,strengthen strategic emerging industries,and promote the vigorous development of the service sector.The service sector is also mentioned in the Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China which proposes to"build a new system of high-quality and efficient service industry."According to international experience,the economic development of major countries is bound to be accompanied by the rising share of the service sector.In the case of China,over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China's economy has developed rapidly and the industrial structure has also undergone tremendous changes.Although in terms of volume,the proportion of the tertiary sector has been increasing significantly,from 24.6%in 1978 to 54.5%in 2020,it stil lags far behind developed countries whose tertiary sector generally exceeds 70%.The ratio of the output value of the tertiary sector to the secondary sector,that is,the industrial structure,needs to be further upgraded.In recent years,the marketization process of the RMB exchange rate has also been advancing.On July 21,2005,China officially introduced a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand.For a long period of time,the RMB to USD exchange rate has shown an overall appreciation trend.After the"8.11 exchange rate"in 2015,the RMB to USD exchange rate entered the"new normal"of two-way fluctuations.However,the real effective exchange rate of the RMB as a whole still shows an appreciation trend.We note a strong positive correlation between the real effective exchange rate of RMB at the national level and the proportion of the tertiary sector.According to the Baumol effect,changes in the relative prices of products in different industrial sectors lead to the reallocation of resources across sectors,thus reshaping the industrial structure.So,will the change in the excha

关 键 词：人民币汇率 资源转移 产业结构升级 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F121.3