“机器代人”还是“规模聚人”:制造业加速折旧政策的就业效应研究  

Employment Effects of Accelerated Depreciation Policy in the Manufacturing Industries:From the Perspectives of"Machines Replacing Humans"and"Scale Gathering Humans"

作　　者：潘妍 杨晓章 王辉 张牧扬[4] Pan Yan;Yang Xiaozhang;Wang Hui;Zhang Muyang

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学金融学院 [2]嘉兴学院经济学院 [3]湖南大学经济与贸易学院 [4]上海财经大学中国公共财政研究院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（产业经济）》2023年第12期3-14,共12页INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY

摘　　要：基于2012-2018年各地区制造业分行业数据,本文采用双重差分法(DID)评估加速折旧政策对制造业就业的影响,结果发现旨在推动制造业转型升级的加速折旧政策带来了未预期的就业效应。一方面,加速折旧政策的实施加快了制造业“机器代人”的进程,提升了制造业劳动力质量。另一方面,政策实施产生的“规模效应”抵消了“机器代人”对制造业就业规模的负面影响,提高了制造业劳动力数量。上述两种效应在技术、劳动和资本三种不同要素密集型行业产生了差异化效果,使得劳动力资源偏向性地流入技术密集型行业,有利于推动制造业结构优化升级。进一步研究表明,加速折旧政策的就业效应会传导至宏观层面,影响地区间和产业间的劳动力流动。上述结论将对未来我国利用税收优惠政策推动制造业转型升级提供一定借鉴意义。Based on the data of various manufacturing industries at the local level during 2012-2018,this article uses the difference-in-differences(DID)method to estimate the impact of accelerated depreciation policy on employ-ment in the manufacturing industries.The results show that the accelerated depreciation policy aimed at promoting the transformation and upgradation of the manufacturing industries has brought unexpected employment effects.On one hand,the implementation of the accelerated depreciation policy has accelerated the process of"machines replacing humans"in the manufacturing industries,which improved the quality of manufacturing labor.On the other hand,the"scale effect"has offset the negative impact of"machines replacing humans"on the employment scale of the manufac-turing industries,which increased the quantity of manufacturing labor.The above two effects are heterogeneous among technology-intensive,labor-intensive,and capital-intensive industries,leading to a biased flow of human resources to technology-intensive industries,which is conducive to the optimization and upgradation of the manufacturing industries.At the macro level,such effects affect labor force mobility between regions and industries.This article also provides clues of China's tax incentive policies promoting manufacturing transformation in the future.

关 键 词：加速折旧政策 制造业就业 机器代人 规模效应 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2