中国自由贸易区关税减让的进口贸易效应——基于关税减让幅度和过渡期的视角  

The Import Trade Effects of Tariff Concessions in China's FTAs:Based on Tariff Concession Margins and Transition Periods

作　　者：吕建兴 张少华[1] Lu Jianxing;Zhang Shaohua

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院,广州510006 [2]广州大学乡村振兴研究院产业研究中心,广州510006

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国际贸易研究）》2023年第5期69-81,共13页INTERNATIONAL TRADE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71903045)。

摘　　要：在中国大举推进自由贸易区建设、构筑新型开放格局的背景下,科学评估现有自由贸易区的贸易效应是一项重要和紧迫的任务。文章基于“国家/地区一产品一时间”层面的数据,采用双重差分法和三重差分法,利用高维固定效应泊松伪极大似然估计技术实证分析自由贸易区生效后不同关税减让幅度与关税减让过渡期对进口的影响。研究发现:(1)中国自由贸易区平均优惠关税呈现较明显的下降趋势,而且关税减让过渡期越长,关税减让幅度越大;不同产品、不同过渡期的关税减让幅度存在较大差异。(2)关税减让显著促进了进口,关税减让引致的进口替代弹性为6.03;但由于自由贸易区使用成本的限制,只有关税减让幅度超过5%才能显著促进进口。(3)随着关税减让幅度的增加,进口促进作用呈逐步增强的特征,同时关税减让过渡期越长,进口促进作用呈下降趋势,但过渡期结束后关税减让对进口的促进作用增加近1倍。(4)不同属性产品对自由贸易区关税减让幅度和过渡期的进口反应呈现不同特征,总体上关税减让对农产品的进口影响不显著,而对工业品、中间品、非中间品、战略品和非战略品的进口存在显著促进作用。文章的研究结论对进一步分析自由贸易区的总体贸易效应、福利效应以及稳妥推进未来自由贸易区谈判和贸易政策制定提供了更为坚实的科学依据。On the basis of the national strategy of building Free Trade Areas(FTAs)established in the 17th Na-tional Congress of the Communist Party of China,China has increasingly formed a new pattern of international trade with FTAs as the main body and a new pattern of comprehensive opening up.It is an important and urgent task for scholars to evaluate the trade effect of FTAs.In this paper,we use the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood(PPML)estimator with high-dimensional fixed-effects to analyze the impact of different margins and transition periods of tariff concessions on imports in China's FTAs.The results show that:(1)The average FTA preferential tariffs have decreased gradually,where longer transition periods of tariff concessions lead to greater tariff concession margins.There are large differences of concession margins between products in different tariff concessions and transition periods.Therefore,controlling heterogeneity is a premise for evaluating the trade effect of FTAs accurately.(2)Tariff concessions have promoted imports significantly,and the import substitution elasticity is 6.03.However,due to the FTA compliance cost,the effect is only significant when the concession margin is more than 5%.(3)With the increasing margin of tariff concessions,the import promotion increases gradually;at the same time,the longer the transition period of tariff concessions,the smaller the import promo-tion,but after the transition period,the promotion has nearly doubled.(4)Different products show different characteris-tics in response to FTA tariff concession margins and the imports in transition periods.In general,the promotion effect of tariff concessions on agricultural products is not significant;while as to industrial products,intermediate products,non-intermediate products,strategic products and non-strategic products,the promotion effect is significant.The contributions of this paper are as follows:(1)In terms of the database,it builds a three-dimensional panel database at the country-product-time level,so as to lay

关 键 词：自由贸易区 关税减让幅度 关税减让过渡期 多边贸易阻力 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]