社保征收体制改革、社保费率调整与社保基金收入:一个综合的理论框架  

Social Security Collection System Contribution Rate Adjustment,and the balance of Social Security Fund in China:A Comprehensive Theoretical Framework

作　　者：徐舒[1] 王茹 王慧[3] Xu Shu;Wang Ru;Wang Hui

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济学院 [2]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院 [3]西南财经大学中国金融研究院,成都611130

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（社会保障制度）》2023年第5期3-19,共17页SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773095,72173099);国家社科基金重点项目(22AZD041);中央高校基本科研业务费“引进人才科研启动资助项目”(JBK22YJ24)的资助。

摘　　要：在当前经济下行压力增大与老龄化加速的背景下,中国面临降低企业社保缴费负担与改善社保基金收支平衡这两个相互矛盾的政策诉求。本文的研究表明社保制度改革中的政策协同可以有效破解上述矛盾。文章通过建立理论模型,有效区别了社保法定缴费率变动、社保缴费基数下限调整、社保征管强度提升三种政策手段对社保基金收入的差异化影响。该理论框架将企业行为对一系列社保政策改革的反应弹性,组合成推断不同政策手段对社保基金收入影响的充分统计量。实证估计显示:虽然法定缴费率的降低使社保基金收入减少,但缴费基数下限的下调却能在给企业减负的同时带来社保基金收入的增加。同时,征管强度提升可以有效夯实社保费基。根据模型推断,2011年实行的《社会保险法》与2019年实施的《降低社会保险费率综合方案》的协同作用,在降低企业社保缴费负担的同时,带来了社保基金收入的增长及社会福利的改善。研究证明了社保制度改革应当坚持“降费率、严征管、实费基”的方向,同时通过政策协同来实现制度设计的优化。Population ageing has increased the pressure to balance the revenue and expenditure of China’s social security fund,which requires the government to consolidate the contribution base and improve the collection efficiency urgently.However,given the complex economic situation at home and abroad as well as the impact of COVID-19,China’s economy is facing pressure from shrinking demand at present.In this context,the Chinese government has implemented a series of social security reforms aimed at boosting market dynamics and promoting economic development.However,these reforms may have a negative impact on the balance between revenue and expenditure of social security fund.Therefore,quantifying the impact of the above reforms on the revenue of social security fund is undoubtedly important.Reforms of social security system in recent years in China serve two purposes.One is to reduce enterprises’payroll tax burden and to promote economic development;and the other is to keep social security fund balanced by strengthening social security collection and management and improving enterprises’actual tax payments.Specifically,there are two salient reforms.The Social Insurance Law was implemented since July 2011,and the reform of social security tax collection agencies was enrolled since January 2019,both aimed to improving the normative social security collection and management.In 2019,the Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Security Contribution Rates was issued,which lowered the contribution rate of social security paid by enterprises for urban workers as well as the contribution base.However,has the above-mentioned reform achieved the goal of maximizing the revenue of social security funds while enhancing the vitality of market players?And what is the overall impact of these reforms on the revenue of social security fund?The key to answering these questions is to consider the response of enterprises to different reform measures.Enterprises would adjust their labor demand and compliance of social security contribut

关 键 词：社保基金收入 社保政策协同 减税降费 

分 类 号：F842.61[经济管理—保险]