住房分层对城镇居民生育意愿的影响  

The Effect of Housing Stratification on Fertility Desire of Urban Residents

作　　者：周建军[1,2] 任娟娟[1] 鞠方 Zhou Jianjun;Ren Juanjuan;Ju Fang

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湘潭411105 [2]湖南大学新型城镇化与不动产研究中心,湘潭411105

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（社会保障制度）》2023年第6期89-99,共11页SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“区际差异化视角下的房价波动、贫富差距与房地产税收调控政策优化研究”(18AJY027)。

摘　　要：积极应对人口老龄化、提振生育率对于我国长期稳定发展具有重要意义。基于2014、2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据实证检验了住房分层对城镇居民生育意愿的影响,研究结果表明,住房产权对生育意愿具有显著的促进作用,但该作用仅存在于多套住房产权者,一套住房产权者和无住房产权者表现出了较低的生育意愿。进一步的分析发现,房价上涨导致的财富不平等、多套住房产权者更好的居住条件以及相较于仅有一套住房产权者更低的住房贷款压力,使多套住房产权者的生育意愿高于一套住房产权者;保障房居住者由于较少的租金支出负担,其生育意愿高于在市场上租房者。该发现验证了仅有一套住房产权者低迷的生育意愿表现以及住房保障制度对于无住房产权者生育意愿的积极影响效应,为破解挚肘三孩政策实施效果的住房因素成因,实施具有长远意义的、生育友好的房地产政策具有重要意义。Actively dealing with the aging population and boosting the fertility rate are of great significance to China's long-term and stable development.Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2014 and 2018,the impact of housing stratification on urban residents'fertility desire is empirically tested.The research results show that housing property rights have a significant promoting effect on fertility desire,but this effect only exists in people with multiple housing property rights,and those with one housing property right and those without housing property rights show lower fertility desire.Further analysis finds that the inequality of housing wealth caused by the rise of housing prices,the better living conditions and the lower housing loan pressure make people with multiple housing property rights have higher fertility desire than those with only one housing property right.Because of the less burden of rent,people living in affordable housing are more willing to have children than those who rent in the market.This finding verifies the depressed fertility desire of those with only one set of housing property rights and the positive impact of the housing security system on the birth intention of those without housing property rights.This paper contributes to the literature on fertility desire in two important ways.First,it reveals the objective facts behind the difference fo subjective fertility desire caused by housing inequality.Second,it analyzes the fertility of multiple housing property right and single housing property right,security housing owners and renters in the market based on the perspective of micro mechanism.In order to solve the housing factors that hinder the implementation of the three-child policy,it is a current priority to implement a long-term and birth friendly real estate policy.

关 键 词：住房分层 生育意愿 房贷压力效应 保障房制度 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]