近20年来人类活动对洪泽湖水质影响归因  

Attribution of Influence of Human Activities on Water Quality of Hongze Lake in Recent 20 Years

作　　者：褚心怡 薛联青[1,2] 汪露 刘远洪 CHU Xinyi;XUE Lianqing;WANG Lu;LIU Yuanhong(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,Jiangsu,China;School of Hydraulic Engineering,Wanjiang University of Technology,Maanshan 243000,Anhui,China;Hongze Lake Management Committee of Jiangsu Province,Huaian 223100,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210024 [2]皖江工学院水利工程学院,安徽马鞍山243000 [3]江苏省洪泽湖管理委员会办公室,江苏淮安223100

出　　处：《水力发电》2024年第6期1-6,78,共7页Water Power

基　　金：江苏省水利科技项目(2019031);新疆生产建设兵团科技合作项目(2022BC001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779074)。

摘　　要：为研究人类活动对湖泊水质的影响,改善湖泊水环境,以洪泽湖及其周边地区为例,分析1996年~2020年高锰酸盐指数(I_(Mn))、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)浓度的演变特征,利用Pearson相关和多元线性回归模型识别影响因子并量化其贡献作用。结果表明:研究期间,洪泽湖水质因子浓度均呈现显著下降趋势,并且与周边地区的社会经济指标变化显著相关;影响I_(Mn)、TN、TP浓度的主要指标分别是工业污水排放量、人口和耕地面积,贡献度分别为32.89%、24.60%和49.1%;区域上,淮阴区和盱眙县的人口、洪泽区和盱眙县的工业污水排放、盱眙县和泗洪县的耕地面积分别对TN、I_(Mn)、TP浓度贡献较大。研究结果可为该地区针对性解决湖泊水环境问题提供一定参考。In order to study the impact of human activities on lake water quality and improve lake water environment,the evolution characteristics of permanganate index(I_(Mn)),total nitrogen(TN)and total phosphorus(TP)concentrations in Hongze Lake and its surrounding areas during 1996-2020 are analyzed,and the impact factors are identified and their contributions are quantified using Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression models.The results show that:(a)during the study period,the water quality factor concentrations of Hongze Lake show a significant downward trend,and are significantly correlated with the changes of socio-economic indicators in surrounding areas;(b)the main indexes affecting the concentration of I_(Mn),TN and TP are the discharge of industrial sewage,population and cultivated land area,respectively,with contributions of 32.89%,24.60%and 49.1%;and(c)in terms of region,the population of Huaiyin District and Xuyi County,the industrial sewage discharge of Hongze District and Xuyi County,and the cultivated land area of Xuyi County and Sihong County contribute significantly to the concentration of TN,I_(Mn) and TP,respectively.The research results can provide some reference for solving the lake water environment problems in this area.

关 键 词：水质 人类活动 多元回归分析 贡献度 洪泽湖 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]