京津冀地区柴油移动燃烧源污染减排潜力预测  

Prediction of Pollution Reduction Potential of Diesel Mobile Combustion Sources Based on Scenario Analysis--A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：郭秀锐[1] 姚畅 刘瑶 宁春晓 吴洪侃 GUO Xiurui;YAO Chang;LIU Yao;NING Chunxiao;WU Hongkan(Beijing Key Laboratory of Regional Air Pollution Control,Faculty of Environment and Life,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学环境与生命学部区域大气复合污染防治北京市重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2024年第6期733-747,共15页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51978011)。

摘　　要：包含柴油车辆和柴油机械的柴油移动燃烧源是现阶段中国进一步持续改善空气质量的重点源。为探究京津冀地区柴油移动燃烧源的污染排放以及减排潜力,在估算2018年京津冀地区柴油车辆和柴油机械污染排放现状的基础上,设置基准情景和5种政策情景,预测2019—2030年不同情景下柴油燃烧源的污染排放趋势,对比分析不同地区、不同源的污染物减排潜力和不同减排措施对不同类型柴油燃烧源的减排效果。结果表明,京津冀地区2018年柴油燃烧源的CO、HC、NO_(x)和PM排放量分别为51.25、22.89、106.52和5.42万t。综合情景下,2030年CO、HC、NO_(x)和PM污染物排放量可分别比基准年减少52.03%、38.58%、71.88%和52.07%。淘汰高排放情景在短时间内的减排效果较好,而长期效果不佳,提升排放标准情景和推广新能源情景的减排潜力会逐年增加,对污染物有较好的减排作用,运输公转铁情景的减排潜力也较好,2030年能有效减少35.13%~45.81%的污染排放。综合情景下柴油车辆和柴油机械的最大减排潜力分别为91.55%和44.69%。此外,CO和NO_(x)的减排潜力主要来源于柴油车辆,而柴油机械对HC和PM的减排效果明显。与其他2个地区相比,天津市的污染减排效果较好,最大减排潜力为80.80%。分类型来看,柴油货车对污染物的减排贡献较大,尤其是重型货车。与工程机械相比,农业机械的污染减排贡献更大,尤其是联合收割机、农用水泵以及三轮车的减排贡献突出。研究结果可为制定柴油移动源的污染控制政策提供科学支持。Diesel mobile combustion sources,including diesel vehicles and diesel machinery,are the key sources for further sustainable air quality improvement in China at this stage.To explore the pollution emissions of diesel mobile combustion sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and their emission reduction potential,this paper set up a baseline scenario and five policy scenarios based on estimating the current status of diesel vehicle and diesel machinery pollution emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2018,predicted the pollution emission trends of diesel combustion sources under different scenarios from 2019 to 2030,and compared and analyzed the pollutant emission reduction potential of different regions and sources.Results show that the emission reduction potential of diesel combustion sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2019-2030 will be reduced and the emissions of CO,HC,NO_(x) and PM from diesel combustion sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2018 are 512500 t,228900 t,1065200 t and 54200 t,respectively.The combined scenario can reduce CO,HC,NO_(x) and PM pollutant emissions in 2030 by 52.03%,38.58%,71.88%and 52.07%,respectively,compared with that in the base year.The emission reduction effect of the scenario of phasing out high emissions is more effective in a short period of time,while the long-term effect is less effective.The emission reduction potential of the scenario of improving emission standards and promoting new energy will increase year by year,which has a better emission reduction effect on pollutants,and the emission reduction potential of the scenario of transporting public to railway is also better,which can effectively reduce 35.13%-45.81%of pollution emissions in 2030.The maximum reduction potential for diesel vehicles and diesel machinery under the combined scenario is 91.55%and 44.69%,respectively.In addition,the emission reduction potential of CO and NO_(x) mainly comes from diesel vehicles,while diesel machinery has a significant reduction effect on H

关 键 词：柴油车辆 柴油机械 大气污染物 情景分析 减排潜力 京津冀地区 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]