中国粮食种植成本上涨的根源——基于宏观经济因素的实证分析  

The Causes of Higher Grain Planting Costs in China:Empirical Analysis Based on Macroeconomic Factors

作　　者：谭砚文[1] 岳瑞雪 李丛希 Tan Yanwen;Yue Ruixue;Li Congxi

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广州510642 [2]广东金融学院保险学院,广州510521

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（农业经济研究）》2023年第2期161-172,共12页AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目“东盟与中国的经济转型和区域农产品价值链发展研究”(编号:71961147002)。

摘　　要：为了探明中国粮食种植成本上涨的根源,本文基于2004-2019年的省级面板数据,考虑中国货币供给、居民收入、房地产市场、城镇化进程和能源价格5个维度11个宏观影响因素,运用Lasso回归方法对中国粮食种植成本的影响因素进行实证研究,并进一步采用通径分析方法探究主要宏观因素对粮食种植成本的直接和间接影响。研究表明,货币流动性过剩、农村居民工资性收入的增加以及房地产市场的快速发展是粮食种植成本上升的根源;其中,货币流动性过剩对粮食种植成本的直接作用较大,而商品房销售价格对粮食种植成本上涨的间接影响最大。因此,为从根本上解决粮食生产成本的过快上涨问题,应坚持稳健的货币政策,加强对房地产市场的调控,大力促进农业科技进步,实现增收与降本双重目标。Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(cities and autonomous regions)from 1990 to 2019,considering 11 macro-influencing factors in five dimensions(including China's monetary policy,residents income,real estate market,the urbanization process,and energy prices),this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors of China's grain planting cost by the Lasso regression,and further explore the direct and indirect effects of various macro-factors on the cost of grain planting using Path analysis methods.Results show that the excess monetary liquidity,the increase of rural residents wage income,and the rapid development of the real estate market are the fundamental causes of rising grain planting costs.Among them,the excess monetary liquidity has the greatest direct effect on the cost of grain planting,while housing price has the biggest indirect impact on the rising grain planting cost.Therefore,in order to solve the rapid rise in grain planting costs,China should adhere to a prudent monetary policy,strengthen regulation over the real estate market,and develop smart agriculture through technological innovations.

关 键 词：粮食种植成本 宏观影响因素 Lasso回归 通径分析 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F302.6