风险冲击对农户经济决策的影响与正规小额信贷的作用  

The Impact of Risk Shock on Rural Households'Economic Decisions and The Role of Formal Microfinance

作　　者：朱乾宇[1] 尤婧[1] Zhu Qianyu;You Jing

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（农业经济研究）》2023年第5期162-178,共17页AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973144);国家自然科学基金重点项目(72034007);国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA117);北京市社科基金项目(17YJB022);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)项目(18XN003)。

摘　　要：本文基于行为与实验经济学理论与方法,通过对吉林省3445个农户开展的实地实验,使用双重差分评估了风险冲击对农户经济偏好与决策的因果效应。研究发现,风险冲击会使农户更加厌恶风险,回避高风险一高回报的生产投资策略,并加大农户对跨期时间偏好不一致的程度,从而降低农户的跨期决策效率。传统的新古典微观经济学对理性人拥有稳定偏好的假设至少在冲击后短期内并不成立。正规小额信贷可得性能够调节风险冲击,表现在:缓解个体尤其是男性、中老年或低教育水平人口在风险冲击下的焦虑、压力和负面情绪,从而促进农户面对风险冲击时的风险承担行为;降低女性的风险厌恶概率;缓解农户跨期时间贴现偏好不一致的程度;缓解中老年或资产贫困人口的损失厌恶程度。This article uses theories and measures in behavioral and experimental economics to conduct a field experiment among 3445 rural households in Jilin province and uses the difference-in-difference identification meth-od to assess the causal impact of risk shock on rural households'economic preferences and decisions.In the presence of risk shock,households become more risk averse,avoid high-risk-high-return investment plans,and are more in-consistent in intertemporal time discounting.The presumption that rational economic agents maintain stable preferenc-es in neoclassical microeconomic models does not hold at least in the short-term after the shock.Formal microfinance mitigates the negative risk shocks in terms of reducing pressure,anxiety and negative emotions.It thus encourages risk-taking behavior,particularly for men,the elderly and the low-educated population,reduces risk aversion in wom-en,increases consistency in intertemporal time discounting,and reduces loss aversion for the elderly or the asset-poor population.

关 键 词：风险冲击 农户决策 偏好 损失厌恶 小额信贷 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] F832.43