撤县设区对区域粮食生产的外溢效应分析  

The Spillover Effect of the Withdrawal of Counties into Districts on Regional Grain Production

作　　者：李宁[1] 周琦宇 Li Ning;Zhou Qiyu

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食与物资学院 [2]南京农业大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（农业经济研究）》2023年第10期28-41,共14页AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“撤县设区中的地方政府粮食安全主体责任转变:嵌入机制、影响效应与政策优化”(编号:72273060);国家社会科学基金后期资助一般项目“撤县设区中的地方政府粮食安全主体责任转变研究”(编号:22FGLB038);江苏省第六期333高层次人才培养支持项目(编号:2022316468)。

摘　　要：系统考察撤县设区对区域粮食生产的外溢效应,有助于从全局层面把握撤县设区与粮食安全之间的关系,从而为协同城市化发展与粮食安全保障提供科学参考。本文基于2004-2020年全国1797个县级单位的面板数据,采用双重差分法、工具变量法等估计方法,探究了撤县设区对区域粮食生产的外溢效应及作用机制。研究发现:撤县设区会对周边未发生撤县设区建制变更县的粮食生产造成外溢的负向冲击,且该外溢效应在空间上表现出随距离增加而逐渐减弱的特征。外溢效应综合反映到地级市层面同样表现出撤县设区对粮食生产的削弱作用。在作用机制上,撤县设区主要通过影响周边县耕地用途非农化、种植结构非粮化的农地非农化机制,以及劳动力跨地区流动、本地就业结构改变的劳动力非农化机制,对粮食生产造成外溢的负向冲击。To systematically examine the spillover effect of withdrawing counties into districts on regional grain production helps comprehend the relationship between the withdrawal and food security from a global perspective,providing policy implications for coordinated development of urbanization and food security.Based on the panel data covering 1,797 county-level administrative units in China from 2004 to 2020,this study employs a difference-indifferences method and instrumental variable approach to investigate the spillover effect of withdrawing counties into districts on grain production and its underlying mechanisms.The findings indicate that the withdrawal of counties into districts has a negative spillover effect on neighboring unrevoked counties,which exhibits spatial heterogeneity of a diminishing magnitude with an increasing distance.At the municipal level,the spillover effect is also manifested as a weakening effect of withdrawing counties into districts on grain production.The study further reveals that the negative spillover effect is mainly attributed to the non-agricultural transfers of farmland and labor force.

关 键 词：撤县设区 粮食生产 外溢效应 农地非农化 劳动力非农化 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学] F326.11[政治法律—中外政治制度]