超采区浅层地下水数值模拟及预测分析  

Numerical simulation and predictive analysis of shallow groundwater in overexploited areas

作　　者：宁阁 苏冬阳[1] 高春杰 苏澳 卢德喜 NING Ge;SU Dongyang;GAO Chunjie;SU Ao;LU Dexi(School of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China;Water Conservancy Bureau of Hejin,Hejin 043300,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024 [2]山西省河津市水利局,山西河津043300

出　　处：《中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文）》2024年第3期283-297,共15页Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51679260);山西省水利科学技术研究与推广项目(2022GM039)。

摘　　要：超采区的地下水变化趋势分析对于区域水资源可持续管理具有重要意义。本文以大同盆地浅层地下水超采区为研究对象,分析了含水层结构和地下水的补给、径流、排泄条件,明确了潜水含水层为影响地下水变化的主要区域。基于GMS与MODFLOW软件,建立了大同盆地潜水含水层各向同性非均质二维非稳定流模型,利用实测地下水流场对模型进行了验证,开展了未来不同场景条件下地下水位预测模拟与分析。结果表明,大同盆地2010—2019年平均地下水开采量(6.0861亿m^(3))大于2001—2016年平均地下水补给量(5.6254亿m^(3)),地下水位下降趋势明显。若地下水开采量下降至2019年开采量的85%,至2035年平均地下水位可回升11.6 m,恢复速度约0.68 m a;若综合考虑未来水源替换工程,至2035年地下水位可显著回升,恢复速率可达1.4 m a。本文研究成果可为大同盆地地下水管控提供科学依据,同时对于我国北方类似地下水超采区的水资源管理和评价具有一定参考价值。Analysis of groundwater changes in overexploited areas is of great significance for sustainable management of regional water resources.This paper takes the shallow groundwater overexploited area in Datong Basin as the research object,analyzes the aquifer structure and the recharge,runoff,and discharge conditions of groundwater,and clarifies that the confined aquifer is the main region affecting groundwater changes.Based on GMS and MODFLOW software,a two-dimensional non-steady flow model of isotropic heterogeneous confined aquifer in Datong Basin is established.The model is validated using measured groundwater flow field,and groundwater level prediction simulations and analyses are conducted under different future scenario conditions.The results show that the average groundwater exploitation volume in Datong Basin from 2010 to 2019(608.61 million m^(3))exceeds the average groundwater recharge volume from 2001 to 2016(562.54 million m^(3)),indicating a significant trend of groundwater level decline.If the groundwater exploitation volume decreases to 85%of the 2019 level,the average groundwater level can rebound by 11.6 meters by 2035,with a recovery rate of approximately 0.68 meters per year.If future water source replacement projects are comprehensively considered,the groundwater level can significantly rebound by 2035,with a recovery rate of up to 1.4 meters per year.The research results of this paper can provide scientific basis for groundwater management in Datong Basin,and also have certain reference value for water resources management and assessment in similar groundwater overexploited areas in northern China.

关 键 词：大同盆地 浅层地下水 地下水超采区 数值模拟 预测分析 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P641.74[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]