基于网络演算的复杂产品系统供应商风险度量  

Supplier Risk Measurement of Complex Product System Based on Network Calculus

作　　者：谷晓燕[1] 邓香平 李俊 GU Xiao-yan;DENG Xiang-ping;LI Jun(Beijing Information Science&Technology University,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学信息管理学院,北京100192

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第14期5707-5715,共9页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71701020);军委装备发展部装备预研领域基金(61403120404)。

摘　　要：复杂产品系统研制过程中供应商之间协同设计制造复杂性高,风险通过供应商间的协作关系相互作用和传导。面向复杂产品系统,构建供应商层次网络,考虑供应商风险累积与风险应对及时性的交互影响,通过引入通信领域网络演算理论,基于积压和时延性能指标刻画风险的特征,将不确定的供应商风险量化问题转化为最坏边界求值问题,实现风险的确界度量。以航空复杂产品系统为例对模型进行验证,可以辨识供应商在协同研制过程中面临的重要风险,为复杂产品系统供应商风险管理提供参考依据。The collaborative design and manufacturing between suppliers in the development process of complex product systems is highly complex,which is interacted and transmitted through the collaborative relationships between suppliers.Building a supplier hierarchical network for complex product systems,considering the interaction between supplier risk accumulation and timely risk response.By introducing network calculus theory in the communication field and characterizing risk characteristics based on backlog and delay performance indicators,the uncertain supplier risk quantification problem was transformed into a worst-case boundary evaluation problem.Taking the aviation complex product system as an example,identifying the key risks faced by suppliers in the collaborative development process and determining their worst-case risk boundary can provide a reference basis for risk management of complex product system suppliers.

关 键 词：复杂产品系统 网络演算 供应商风险度量 风险累积 风险应对 

分 类 号：N945.12[自然科学总论—系统科学] V219[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]