CMIP6耦合模式对青藏高原积雪的未来预估  

CMIP6 projected changes in snow cover in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

作　　者：陈涛[1] 高歌[2,3] 杜晓辉 陈华 Chen Tao;Gao Ge;Du Xiaohui;Chen Hua(Xizang Autonomous Region Climate Center,Lhasa 850000,Xizang,China;Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;Lhasa Meteorological Bureau,Lhasa 850000,Xizang,China;Xizang Atmospheric Detection Technology and Equipment Support Center,Lhasa 850000,Xizang,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区气候中心,西藏拉萨850000 [2]国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [4]拉萨市气象局,西藏拉萨850000 [5]西藏自治区大气探测技术与装备保障中心,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第5期901-910,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金(U23A2006);中国气象局西南区域气象中心创新团队基金(XNQYCXTD-202201);中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划系统性重大项目(P2018T006);中央引导地方项目(XZ202102YD0012C);西藏自治区自然科学基金资助。

摘　　要：基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的历史模拟试验以及情景预估试验数据,分析了21世纪中(2035—2064年)、后期(2070—2099年)青藏高原积雪相对于参考期(1985—2014年)的变化。结果表明:相对于参考期,21世纪中、后期青藏高原平均年积雪日数、平均积雪期均表现为减少,减少幅度总体随着人为辐射强迫的增加而加大;除低强迫情景外,21世纪后期的减少幅度均大于21世纪中期;空间上总体表现为青藏高原东南部的减少幅度大于西北部。21世纪中、后期青藏高原积雪初日均表现为推迟、积雪终日均表现为提前,积雪初日推迟天数是积雪终日提前天数的1.5~2.0倍;人为辐射强迫越高,积雪初(终)日推迟(提前)天数越多;相同情景下21世纪后期积雪初(终)日推迟(提前)天数均多于21世纪中期。降雪(气温)与年积雪日数呈正(负)相关;随着人为辐射强迫的增加,降雪对年积雪日数的相对贡献率总体呈增加趋势;空间特征表现为降雪(气温)对青藏高原南部和北部(东部和西部)的年积雪日数的相对贡献更大。7—12月降雪的减少幅度大于1—6月,这可能是积雪初日推迟天数多于积雪终日提前天数的重要原因。不同情景下青藏高原未来积雪变化差异明显,由此可见,控制温室气体排放对减缓未来青藏高原积雪的减少速率至关重要。Snow cover changes in the middle(2035—2064)and end(2070—2099)of 21st century are investigated over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on the Historical data and ScenarioMIP data of the Coupled Model Intercom-parison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Compare with the reference period(1985—2014),the mean annual snow cover days and mean snow duration decrease during the middle and end of the 21st century over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and the overall reduction are more pronounce with the increase of greenhouse gas emission concentration;the reduc-tion in the late-21st century is more pronounced compare to the mid-21st century except for the low emission scenario;Spatially,the decrease in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is more severe than that in the northwest.The snow onset date is delayed and the snow end date is advanced in the middle and late 21st century,the days of former is 1.5-2.0 times that of the latter;The more greenhouse gas emissions the more days the snow onset(end)date is delayed(advanced);The changes of the snow onset date and the snow end date are more pronounced in the late 21st century.Snowfall(temperature)is positively(negatively)correlated with the annual snow cover days;Generally,the relative contribution rate of snowfall to the annual snow cover days increases with the increase of greenhouse gas emission concentration;Spatially,snowfall(temperature)contributes more to the annual snow cover days in the south-ern and northern(east and west)parts of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Decrease in snowfall from July to December is greater than from January to June,which may be the reason why the days of snow onset date is delayed more than the days of snow end date is advanced.There are great differences in the future snow cover changes over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under different scenarios,so controlling greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to slowing down the future snow cover reduction rate over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

关 键 词：青藏高原 CMIP6 积雪日数 积雪期 气温降雪贡献率 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]