长三角城市群经济韧性测度与分析——基于Shift-Share的经济韧性分解  

Measurement and Analysis of Economic Resilience in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration ecalculatio——A Shift-Share Analysis Approach

作　　者：王欢芳[1] 陈素月 WANG Huan-fang;CHEN Su-yue(Business School,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou 412007,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学商学院,湖南株洲412007

出　　处：《兰州财经大学学报》2024年第2期48-61,共14页Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学一般基金项目“我国先进制造业与现代服务业融合水平测度及模式研究”(20BJY093);湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目“新发展格局下湖南省产业链现代化水平测度及提升研究”(22A0421);湖南省自然科学面上项目“数字经济推动产业链现代化水平提升的机理、实证与路径”(2023JJ30219)。

摘　　要：以长三角城市群27个城市为研究对象,测度2008—2010年抵抗期和2010—2019年恢复期城市群经济韧性水平,并进一步运用Shift-Share分解方法探索长三角城市群经济韧性内在影响机制。研究显示:抵抗期和恢复期中长三角城市群经济韧性均值分别为0.309和0.301,均强于全国层面经济韧性水平;Shift-Share分解后发现竞争力分量对各城市经济韧性水平提升起到决定性作用,抵抗期阶段主要由第二、三产业共同作用影响经济韧性水平;恢复期阶段则以第二产业竞争力为主导力量,同时以第三产业竞争力作为辅助力量。通过实证探究长三角城市群经济一体化发展的规律和特点,为增强中国经济韧性提出相关建议,助力中国经济高质量发展。This paper investigates the economic resilience of 27 cities within the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,measuring their performance during the resistance period(2008-2010)and the re⁃covery period(2010-2019).Furthermore,it employs the Shift-Share analysis approach to explore the un⁃derlying mechanisms influencing economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.The research reveals that,on average,the economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomer⁃ation during the resistance and recovery periods is 0.309 and 0.301,respectively,surpassing the national level of economic resilience.The Shift-Share analysis indicates that competitive effect plays a decisive role in enhancing the economic resilience of each city.During the resistance period,economic resilience is influenced by the combined effects of the secondary and tertiary industries,while in the recovery peri⁃od,the competitiveness of the secondary industry serves as the dominant force,supported by the competi⁃tiveness of the tertiary industry.The paper concludes by empirically exploring the patterns and character⁃istics of the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,providing recom⁃mendations to strengthen China's economic resilience and contributing to the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.

关 键 词：长三角城市群 经济韧性 Shift-Share分解 产业结构 竞争力 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]