出口目的国经济政策不确定性影响了中国农产品出口吗?  

Hasthe Economic Policy Uncertainty of the Export Destination Countries Affected China’s Agricultural Exports?

作　　者：何邦路 陈思宇 赵智晶 He Banglu;Chen Siyv;Zhao Zhijing

机构地区：[1]延安大学经济与管理学院,延安716000 [2]成都理工大学管理科学学院,成都610059 [3]四川农业大学商旅学院,都江堰611830

出　　处：《世界农业》2024年第6期38-50,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“提升中国农业产业链供应链可追溯性的消费决策及应用问题研究”(21BGL161);四川省社会科学重点项目“中国对‘一带一路’沿线国家农业直接投资风险识别、测度及预警研究”(SC21A015);四川省科技计划项目“农产品(食品)质量安全追溯体系关键商用问题研究”(2021JDR0344)。

摘　　要：稳步扩大农产品出口是缩小中国农业贸易逆差、提升农业国际贸易水平、实现农业现代化的重要发力点。本文基于2002—2019年中国对21个主要农产品出口国家的面板数据,检验了目的国经济政策不确定性对中国农产品出口的影响。结果发现:①对于需求弹性较小的农产品,目的国经济政策不确定性仍发挥显著的抑制效应,且这种影响具有长期性但逐渐衰减;分出口产品类别看,出口目的国经济政策不确定性对中国水产品制品和植物液、汁的出口表现出明显的抑制作用,但对饮品(咖啡、茶、马黛茶及调味香料)、果蔬(蔬菜、水果、坚果等制品)和烟草及其制品等产品出口影响不明显;分区域看,欧洲和北美洲国家的经济政策不确定性对中国农产品出口抑制作用显著,南美洲表现出促进作用,亚洲则缺乏敏感性。②其机制在于,目的国经济政策不确定性通过限制其贸易自由进而影响中国农产品出口。③中国技术创新对目的国经济政策不确定性抑制中国农产品出口具有削弱作用,且无论是从投入还是产出视角均显著。Steady expanding agricultural export is an important point of force to narrow China’s agricultural trade deficit,improve the level of international agricultural trade and realize agricultural modernization.Based on the panel data of China’s 21 major agricultural export countries from 2002 to 2019,the paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty in the destination countries on China’s agricultural exports.The results found that:For agricultural products with less demand elasticity,the economic policy uncertainty of the export destination countries still plays a significant inhibitory effect,and this effect has a long-term but gradually attenuation;by the category of export products,the economic policy uncertainty of the export destination country shows an obvious inhibitory effect on the export of aquatic products and plant liquid and juice,however,the impact on the export of drinks(coffee,tea,horse tea and spices),fruits and vegetables(vegetables,fruits,nuts and other products),tobacco and its products and other products is not obvious;by region,the economic policy uncertainty of european and north american countries has a significant inhibitory effect on China’s agricultural export,south america showed a promoting effect,in asia lacks sensitivity.The mechanism lies in that,the uncertainty of the economic policy of the target country affects the export of our agricultural products by restricting its trade freedom.China’s technological innovation has a weakening effect on the economic policy uncertainty of the destination country to restrain China’s agricultural export,and both from the input and output perspective are significant.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 农产品出口 贸易自由 技术创新 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62