中国烟草产业碳排放脱钩弹性及驱动因素——基于Tapio脱钩模型与LMDI分析  

Elasticity and Driving Factors of Carbon Emission Decoupling in China's Tobacco Industry——Based on the Tapio Decoupling Model and LMDI Analysis

作　　者：李汝晴 LI Ru-qing(School of Economics and Management,Yantai University,Yantai,Shandong,264003,China)

机构地区：[1]烟台大学经济管理学院,山东烟台264003

出　　处：《新疆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第3期82-89,共8页Journal of Xinjiang Normal University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：2023年度山东省重点研发计划(软科学)一般项目(2023RKY01016)。

摘　　要：新发展阶段,明晰烟草产业碳排放与产业增长的关联,厘清烟草碳减排路径,将助力推动烟草领域“双碳”进程。基于2000—2021年中国烟草产业碳排放测算数据,运用Tapio脱钩模型分析中国烟草产业碳排放与产业增长的关系,采用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)对碳排放驱动因素进行分解。研究结果显示:2000—2021年中国烟草产业碳排放与产业增长的脱钩状态相对稳定,大多呈现衰退脱钩现象。亩产效应和产业结构效应是碳排放量增加的主要驱动因素,而碳排放强度效应和生产规模效应对碳排放具有抑制作用。建议增加烟草行业的科研投入、优化烟草产业结构、提高亩产效益、制定科学合理的发展规模、推进绿色科技革新等方面开展烟草行业碳减排工作,推动低碳烟草产业高质量发展。In the new development stage,clarifying the correlation between carbon emissions of tobacco industry and industry growth and identifying the pathways for tobacco industry carbon emission reduction will aid in achieving high-quality development of the tobacco industry and promoting the'dual carbon'process in the tobacco field.Based on the carbon emission calculation data of China's tobacco industry from 2000 to 2021,Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and industry growth in China's tobacco industry,and employ the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions.Research findings indicate that between 2000 and 2021,the decoupling status of carbon emissions and industry growth in China's tobacco industry has been relatively stable,exhibiting declinatory decoupling in most instances.The per-acre yield effect and industrial structure effect are the primary drivers of increased carbon emissions,whereas carbon emission intensity effect and production scale effect have a suppressing effect on carbon emissions.Recommendations for increasing research investment in the tobacco industry,optimizing the structure of the tobacco industry,improving yield per unit area,formulating a scientifically reasonable development scale,and promoting green technological innovation to carry out carbon emission reduction work in the tobacco industry,thereby aiding the high-quality development of the low-carbon tobacco industry.

关 键 词：烟草产业碳排放 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI模型 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]