中国新质生产力:发展水平与动态演进特征  

China’s New Quality Productivity:Development Level and Dynamic Evolution Characteristics

作　　者：丁仕潮 魏引娣 张飞扬 Ding Shichao;Wei Yindi;Zhang Feiyang(School of Economics and Management,Anqing Normal University,Anqing Anhui 246133,China;Library,Anqing Normal University,Anqing Anhui 246133,China)

机构地区：[1]安庆师范大学经济与管理学院,安徽安庆246133 [2]安庆师范大学图书馆,安徽安庆246133

出　　处：《统计与决策》2024年第10期5-11,共7页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKQ2020D47)。

摘　　要：文章从要素协同的视角构建了新质生产力概念模型,利用耦合协调度模型测算了2010—2021年我国31个省份的新质生产力发展水平,并采用系统聚类、Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计、Markov链、收敛模型刻画了其动态演进特征。研究发现:(1)新质生产力发展水平呈现上升趋势,其中,东部地区水平最高,增速最快,东高西低格局明显。(2)总体差异呈现先降后升的发散态势,其主要来源是地区间差异,且东-中地区间、东-西地区间差异均呈现扩大态势。(3)全国及东部地区存在逐渐减弱的极化现象。(4)邻近省份能够产生溢出效应,能够促进本省向高等级状态转移。(5)全国及三大地区不存在σ收敛特征,但均存在绝对β收敛与条件β收敛特征,且中西部地区的收敛速度高于全国平均水平。(6)障碍度排名前三的指标依次为技能型劳动力、产业前沿性、创新型劳动力。This paper constructs a conceptual model of new quality productivity from the perspective of factor coordination,then estimates the development level of new quality productivity in 31 provinces of China from 2010 to 2021 by using the coupling coordination degree model,and finally uses hierarchical clustering,Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation,Markov chain and convergence model to describe its dynamic evolution characteristics.The results go as below:(1)The development level of new quality productivity shows an upward trend,among which the eastern region is the highest and the fastest growing,and the pattern of being high in the east and low in the west is obvious.(2)The overall difference shows a divergence trend of first decreasing and then increasing,the main source of which is the regional gap,and the gap between the eastern and central regions and the eastern and western regions shows a widening trend.(3)There is a gradual weakening of polarization in the whole country and the eastern region.(4)Neighboring provinces can generate spillover effects,which can promote the transfer of their own provinces to higher status.(5)There is noσconvergence in China and the three regions,but there are absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence,and the convergence rate in the central and western regions is higher than the national average.(6)The top three obstacle factors are skilled labor,cutting-edge industry and innovative labor.

关 键 词：新质生产力 耦合协调度 MARKOV链 Σ收敛 Β收敛 

分 类 号：F221[经济管理—国民经济] F222